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2021年6月12日星期六

收支平衡點 (Breakeven Point)

從財務學的角度看,提倡「躺平主義」的大陸年輕人修正了香港中產的錯誤生活方式。愛國社會賢達說得對,大陸人比香港人聰明,哈哈。

樓價租金高 港人難「躺平」

香港中產的生活方式其實是反面教材由於迷信四仔主義(據說是八十年代本地大學男生的人生目標,即是畢業之後要努力工作和儲錢,盡快購置屋仔+車仔+娶老婆仔+生細路仔),所以必須準時結婚生育和買樓,然後把家庭的各種功能外判給服務供應商:家務外判給輸入的外國勞工(外傭),教孩子做功課外判給補習社或補習老師,照顧年老父母的工作外判給醫院或老人院或日託中心結果把家庭的收支平衡點 (Breakeven Point) 推到很高,兩夫婦都必須出外工作,長工時變成無法避免,因為賺少個錢都不足以應付各種開支。由於夫妻或父母子女沒有時間相處,關係疏離甚至惡劣,但是所賺的錢足以供養很多條產業鏈,即是令生意人得益,而官府也樂見稅收增加,因為公務員用公帑出糧(支薪)。萬一夫婦的其中一方甚至雙方(都)失業,又無法大幅削減開支的話,後果可以很嚴重(例如:無法供樓,於是不敢向僱主說不,成為服從性高的奴隸,對官府來說有助維穩,因為特首只需要跟僱主打個招呼就可以(控制數目眾多的打工仔),便利施政(例如:用飯碗要脅僱員打防疫針)

網上世界的財經寫手說:港人很難「躺平」,原因是樓價或租金太高,打工仔賺得少隨時變「瞓街」(粵:淪為露宿者)。說得也是,香港的樓價太瘋狂,除非閣下擁有祖傳的物業或公屋單位,否則要實踐簡樸生活並不容易。任志剛說過,高樓價其實是香港的一種間接稅 (Indirect Tax)。換言之,所謂的低稅率不過是假像。當樓價或租金成為生活費中的固定成本 (Fixed Cost),令打工仔的收支平衡點難以降低,代價是影響健康或犧牲婚姻或生活質素欠佳,國產中文說得很白:「誰不是用命換錢?。簡單地說:無錢無自由。

但是長遠來說,香港的高地(樓)價政策未必可以維持下去,因為中共已經明白,香港的房屋問題嚴重到足以危害國家安全的地步。證據:年輕人用噴漆寫在街頭的留言:「監倉大過劏房,你以為我會怕坐監(牢)?」掌權的老人害怕上街的年輕人,所以中共透過改變特首選舉的方式(選委會由 1200 人擴展至 1500 人,而新增 300 人全部有紅色背景)削弱了地產商的做王能力。這是改變「地產霸權」的第一步,應該還有其他後著的(例如:如何改變香港的稅制令政府的收入減少依賴地產和相關的產業),所以你會見到香港的地產商捐錢或獻地,即是:罪己或求饒。是否足以令香港的樓價大幅回落,讓年輕人的生活擔子稍為減輕,還有待觀察,因為當中牽涉一些非常複雜的結構性問題(例如:土地發展的程序,新界鄉事派的利益,明日大嶼能否開展),三言兩語說不清。

「躺平主義」致力於降低個人的收支平衡點 (Breakeven point)

扯遠了,說回來。提倡「躺平主義」的大陸年輕人向相反的方向走,致力於降低個人的收支平衡點 (Breakeven point)。「躺平主義」的精神,是不戀愛,不結婚,不生育,不買樓(房),不消費,不追求名利,放棄向上爬,試圖用最低的物質水平生存。不必要的開支減少了,就可以降低收支平衡點,個人無須成為僱主的跑數機器(金錢奴隸),日子會過得比較輕鬆,幹得不高興就索性辭職(反正沒有向上爬的野心),讓自己有充份的時間休息思考做喜歡做的事(假設那些活動不需要花太多的錢)

表面上,大陸年輕人所倡導的「躺平」比香港黃絲小朋友的「攬炒」(粵:同歸於盡)溫和,但是對於官府和商界來說,同樣具備殺傷力。如果躺平的年輕人數量夠多和夠團結,長遠來說可能令官府的稅收減少,直接威脅到公務員(提示:飯桶在機關)以及(侵吞公款的)貪官的生存空間,也會減少私人消費(提示:內循環)的增長動力。(僱主)想靠換血控制成本,在最短的時間之內賺到最盡,然後把錢轉移外國?我用「絕後」這一招癱瘓制度(提示:黃子華+絕後抗暴政)。這是一種消極抵抗的鬥爭策略,過程中無須發動令老百姓必須血濺街頭和反對派領袖必定入獄殺頭的暴力革命。利益集團懂計算?年輕人也懂。對,消極抵抗也要用腦,也需要創意。這是互聯網和社交媒體的年代,但既得利益者的思維還停留於工業革命時代(提示:流水作業生產線+血汗工廠),於是無法跟年輕人溝通,又或者是覺得沒有必要,因為那是人家的孩子(所以死不完)。

「躺平」背後的思路,跟「港式佛系」(萬事隨緣)或「台式小確幸」(開咖啡店或書店)一脈相承,同樣是年輕人對保守右翼(官府或商界)進行消極反抗。毛主席的名句:「那裡有壓迫,那裡就有反抗。」社會動盪不安,是因為舊的經濟發展模式導致利益分配不均,也不能滿足年輕人的要求,於是小朋友用不同的方法反抗制度。消極的「躺平」,跟利益集團鬥長命。積極的「攬炒」,即是起來翻桌子。容許 Auntie 再次借用毛主席的名句:「青年人好像早晨八九點鐘的太陽,我已是下午四五點鐘的太陽。現在世界正在大變,不是西風壓倒東風,就是東風壓倒西風。」(出處:<毛澤東對留蘇學生的演講>,時間:1957 年底)偉大領袖的智慧源於辯證法 (Dialectics),也符合中國傳統文化的陰陽五行論(不同的元素既相生也相剋)。正因為不同勢力之間失去了微妙的均衡,所以顛倒錯亂,場面失控。這種事情,廣東話叫「倒瀉籮蟹」。

插圖來源:互聯網

參考資料/延伸閱讀:

Napkin Finance - Break-Even Point

https://napkinfinance.com/napkin/break-even-point/

Summary: A company is at its break-even point when its revenue equals its expenses. It is neither making nor losing money at this point. Companies use their break-even points to figure out how easy or hard it will be to turn a profit. The lower the break-even point is, the lower a company’s hurdle to becoming financially successful.

Companies can even use their break-even points to decide whether or not to stay in business. If a company is consistently operating below its break-even point, then it may not make sense to keep running the business.

Expenses come in two main types: fixed and variable costs. A fixed cost is the same whether the business sells one item or 100. A variable cost, on the other hand, changes as the number of items it sells goes up or down.

A company might also use this number to:

  • Set the right price on products and services
  • Highlight which expenses are too high and could be reduced
  • Decide when to launch a new product or service
  • Set long-term goals 

Wikipedia - Break-even (economics)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Break-even_(economics)

Summary: The break-even point is one of the most commonly used concepts of financial analysis, and is not only limited to economic use, but can also be used by entrepreneurs, accountants, financial planners, managers and even marketers. Break-even points can be useful to all avenues of a business, as it allows employees to identify required outputs and work towards meeting these.

If the business does not think that they can sell the required number of units, they could consider the following options:

1. Reduce the fixed costs. This could be done through a number or negotiations, such as reductions in rent payments, or through better management of bills or other costs.

2. Reduce the variable costs, (which could be done by finding a new supplier that sells tables for less).

Either option can reduce the break-even point so the business need not sell as many tables as before, and could still pay fixed costs.

Investopedia - What Is the Breakeven Point (BEP)?

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/breakevenpoint.asp

Summary: In accounting, the breakeven point formula is determined by dividing the total fixed costs associated with production by the revenue per individual unit minus the variable costs per unit. In this case, fixed costs refer to those which do not change depending upon the number of units sold. Put differently, the breakeven point is the production level at which total revenues for a product equal total expenses.

In accounting, the breakeven point is calculated by dividing the fixed costs of production by the price per unit minus the variable costs of production. The breakeven point is the level of production at which the costs of production equal the revenues for a product. In investing, the breakeven point is said to be achieved when the market price of an asset is the same as its original cost.

Investopedia - What Is a Break-Even Analysis?

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/breakevenanalysis.asp

Summary: Break-even analysis entails calculating and examining the margin of safety for an entity based on the revenues collected and associated costs. In other words, the analysis shows how many sales it takes to pay for the cost of doing business.

The break-even point is calculated by dividing the total fixed costs of production by the price per individual unit less the variable costs of production. Fixed costs are costs that remain the same regardless of how many units are sold.

Break-even analysis looks at the level of fixed costs relative to the profit earned by each additional unit produced and sold. In general, a company with lower fixed costs will have a lower break-even point of sale.

Hong Kong’s tax system explained: why levies are so low, how it competes with Singapore, and why it’s ‘both out of date and ahead of its time’ 

The pairing of low income tax and high property values has been successful for the city, but experts warn it might not last.

Hana Davis

South China Morning Post (Mar 2, 2019)

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/hong-kong-economy/article/2188256/hong-kongs-tax-system-explained-why-levies-are-so

Extract: In Taxation without Representation, a book by former Hong Kong resident Michael Littlewood, the city’s system is described as “both seriously out of date and ahead of its time”.

If taxes are so low, how does the government make money? The government has other, lucrative sources of revenue. It directly owns much of the city’s land, and sells sites to private developers only when population growth projections require it. In the 2017-18 financial year, 27 per cent of Hong Kong’s HK$612 billion revenue came from land sales. The government also makes money by leasing land.

Hong Kong’s pairing of low income tax with high property values has been successful for the city. However, higher property values mean greater property tax, which some say is making the city less attractive. Last year former Monetary Authority chief executive Joseph Yam Chi-kwong (任志剛) called the city’s policy on land a de facto tax imposed upon its residents. He warned that sky-high land and property values would stunt economic development in what was already the world’s least affordable market.

Littlewood says the system’s historical success has come from concentrating the tax burden on the highest incomes while sparing the poor. However, there are doubts about whether this system can meet the demands of the 21st century. There is a strong case for the introduction of a progressive consumption tax, he says, but the idea is new and politically difficult. But Littlewood argues the system already indirectly discourages consumption by being generous in its treatment of savings, which effectively puts it ahead of its time. Ultimately, the critical factor is popular support, he believes, and the only way to determine whether Hongkongers truly approve of the tax regime is by establishing a democratic system of government.

中環街市:香港人難「躺平」 隨時變瞓街

2021 5 31

https://hk.finance.yahoo.com/

節錄:內地熱議年輕人流行「躺平主義」,對資本社會現狀的「遊戲規則」不屑與不滿,為了控訴社會,年輕人決定做「躺平族」,有點像早年日本興起的「低慾望社會」,凡打工仔不再力爭上游,索性有時間就「躺平」在家中沙發,「不買房、不買車、不結婚、不生娃、不消費」,維持生存最低標準就可以了;「躺平族」也會工作,但除了基本生活外,拒絕更多的成為他人賺錢的奴隸。「躺平主義」一出,立即遭批評生存消極,年輕人躺平可恥云云。事實上,「躺平主義」不是新鮮事,內地年輕人所面對的社會難題,香港人早已面對多年,只是香港人即使自己不願意奮鬥,也無從選擇,難以參考內地「躺平」,原因如下:躺平需要空間,但香港的空間成本太貴,樓價至今依然是全球最難負擔,香港家庭要不吃不喝 20.7 年才買到樓。

盧斯達:各種躺平者

https://www.facebook.com/dadazim/

節錄:2019 年香港出現了「攬炒」,中國則有「躺平」。後者是指既然年輕窮人無法階級流動,不如過極低慾望生活,離開勞動市場,不為老闆打工,有網民直接總結躺平戰略思想:「躺平的韭菜不好割」。「躺平」有「攬炒」情緒。躺平派中國年輕人說,自己躺平,老闆就過不上想要的生活,報復老闆。至於香港,新世紀以來年輕人就十分卑微,具體數字是樓價物價大幅上漲,而大學生起薪點往往維持大致不變。人力資源顧問年年在報紙上說,年輕人求職要肯吃苦,要肯放低身價。政府則多數表示,年輕人不如北上工作,前途可能更好。有社會賢達直情等於講,年輕人咁多爹是因為害怕與中國學生競爭,你不競爭都沒用,可以用中國移民取代你的,多多都有。

躺平說出現,只是側面反映一些人未分享到「改開」的好處,而且極為絕望。等於玩「大富翁」,先買資產的人,之後基本就「躺贏」。很快就會有人覺得,這遊戲無法共贏,贏不了的,便找辦法讓這個遊戲或這個世界無法再暢順運作。因為生存和繁衍的資源變得無法負擔,就會減低速度。正常的政府可能會講道理,但香港的社會賢達經常想到中國有很多人力資源,所以不重視本地人,不會說些話做些事留人,甚至連騙你都不打算。他們的話總結也就是一句:這個位,你不做,很多人爭住做。

關於最近很熱門的「躺平」,筆者有點話說

https://www.facebook.com/zannanza

節錄:躺平並不是中國獨有的現象,而是整個經濟發達東亞地區 (to a lesser extent,西、意、希臘等南歐國家)的現象和趨勢。它燒到中國和香港,代表已經進入晚期。日本的「尼特族」(NEET) 就是躺平主義的先行者。

為何會出現「躺平主義」呢?這答案相信會令很多人震驚:促使「躺平」出現的催化劑,和促使二十世紀東亞超級經濟奇蹟的催化劑,是同一樣東西、同一股力量。道理很簡單:把引擎發動機的節流閥推到極限,飛機或是汽車自然極速狂飆。同樣,利用一個超高競爭性的社會把人類的承受能力推到極限,這就是東亞經濟奇蹟的驅動力。但是把節流閥推到極限,過了一些時間,引擎/發動機就會因負荷過大和過熱而損壞,導致熄火。飛機就會失速墜落,機毀人亡;汽車就會死火「拋錨」在馬路中心。同樣,一個競爭力過大的社會,過度消耗人類能忍受的極限,最終人類的生存、奮鬥動力也會熄火。物極必反,亞洲人也是人,不是沒有感情、沒有感覺的機器人。當社會把人類推到極限,以圖維持永遠的高增長;但是當越來越多年輕人失去向上流動的希望,最終奮鬥動力直接熄火,體系就不能再維持。這也是對這套制度最消極,但是最終極的報復。

年輕人「躺平」對整個東亞最致命的打擊,就是不婚不育,長遠最終導致人口全滅,經濟、文明全部崩潰。如果東亞經濟,甚至整個文明體系要生存下來,必須針對最根本的基礎問題進行改革。這是非常困難,因為會觸動到這些國家整個既得利益集團的核心利益,但是是必須。否則導致東亞很多年輕人集體意志執行「安樂死計劃」的基本因素不解除,出生率是根本不可能出現有意義的回升(例如日本 2000 年代末到 2010 年代初的出生率回升結果只是迴光反照),東亞人口、經濟、文明全滅只是時間問題。「成也蕭何,敗也蕭何」這就是近現代東亞大歷史的真實寫照。

Why China’s youth are ‘lying flat’ in protest of their bleak economic prospects

He Huifeng in Guangdong and Tracy Qu

SCMP (9 Jun, 2021)

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3136503/why-chinas-youth-are-lying-flat-protest-their-bleak-economic

Extract: Young Chinese fed up with what they see as limited prospects in the face of gruelling work hours, a trend of conspicuous consumption and skyrocketing house prices are choosing to do the bare minimum. Instead of striving to buy a house, car, or even start a family, they are rejecting it all to “lie flat”(躺平).From white-collar workers in China’s bustling cities to university students, an army of frustrated young people are taking to social media and internet message boards to declare themselves “‘lying flat youth”.

Across the country, T-shirts printed with “Do nothing lie flat youth” have become hot selling items, and authorities are scrambling to suppress the phenomenon, fearful about a challenge to the established social and economic order. The movement’s roots can be traced back to an obscure internet post called “lying flat is justice”, in which a user called Kind-Hearted Traveller combined references to Greek philosophers with his experience living on 200 yuan (US$31) a month, two meals a day and not working for two years.

China's new 'tang ping' trend aims to highlight pressures of work culture

BBC (June 3, 2021)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57348406

Extract: Young people in China exhausted by a culture of hard work with seemingly little reward are highlighting the need for a lifestyle change by "lying flat". The new trend, known as "tang ping"(躺平), is described as an antidote to society's pressures to find jobs and perform well while working long shifts. China has a shrinking labour market and young people often work more hours.

The term "tang ping" is believed to have originated in a post on a popular Chinese social media site. "Lying flat is my wise movement," a user wrote in a since-deleted post on the discussion forum Tieba, adding: "Only by lying down can humans become the measure of all things." The comments were later discussed on Sina Weibo, another popular Chinese microblogging site, and the term soon became a buzzword.

The idea behind "tang ping" - not overworking, being content with more attainable achievements and allowing time to unwind - has been praised by many and inspired numerous memes. It has been described as a spiritual movement. However, along with the original Tieba post, the Douban group has since been deleted, and searches for the hashtag #TangPing have been banned on Sina Weibo in an apparent effort by censors to prevent people seeing the scale of the new trend.

香港經濟日報:何謂割韭菜?

https://service.hket.com/knowledge/2139056/

定義:在股票市場,散戶被形容為韭菜,長高了,便被割掉。意指股票被大戶舞高後,散戶高追入市,大戶便高位套利離場,仍持貨的散戶便蒙受損失。大戶之後再舞高弄低,新一批散戶又淪為韭菜,遭人收割。知多啲:散戶除被向上炒式割韭菜,也會被向下炒式割韭菜,股價甚至可下跌 99%。有些股份會透過「供股」,不斷掏空股民的金錢;如不供股,除權後,股民手中的股票被攤薄,每股價值立即縮水。如供股多來數次,股價愈供愈跌,股票價值可蒸發逾 9 成,損失慘重。

廣東話百科:「倒瀉籮蟹」會有什麼後果?

新華網(2017-11-21

http://big5.xinhuanet.com/gate/big5/m.xinhuanet.com/gd/2017-11/21/c_1121986656.htm

話你知:「倒瀉」指從上向下傾瀉,「籮」就是籮筐,一種用竹子編的農具。「倒瀉籮蟹」的意思是裝螃蟹的籮筐被打翻,螃蟹滿地爬,人們驚慌失措,四處躲避,形容場面混亂、無法控制或者手忙腳亂的情形。點造句:1.(廣東話)街口爆水管,成條街浸曬,好似倒瀉籮蟹咁。(書面語:街口的水管爆了,整條街都被水浸泡,場面很混亂。)2. (廣東話)今日鋪頭人手唔夠,一到食飯時間就忙到倒瀉籮蟹。(書面語:今天店鋪人手不夠,一到吃飯時候就手忙腳亂。)

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