老問題

 

中國要面對的問題，已非如何維持高增長，而是怎樣在缺乏政治自由的情況下，實現產業的升級轉型，以及尋找新動力。 

還未（全民）發達就老了 

中國經濟不可能再依賴勞動密集 (Labour-intensive) 低增值行業來吸引外資和提供增長動力，原因如下： 

（一）2016 年開始容許年輕夫婦生第二胎，但是民間反應冷淡，生育率下降但離婚率上升，導致人口老化和工資上升。英語傳媒的說法：China is about to get old before it gets rich，即是：還沒有（全民）發達就老了。當人口老化形成不可逆轉的長期趨勢，對內不利消費行業（提示：內循環＝刺激私人消費），對外也不利跟打壓中國的美帝長期抗戰（香港親建制媒體的觀點）。原因很簡單：有足夠的年輕人，才有足夠的廉價勞工（讓企業可以靠不停換血控制成本）及納稅人（去供養官府以及為退休保障制度注入新資金）。年輕人肯結婚生育，消費行業才有足夠的需求。對，靠人多。如果閣下是環保份子（提示：環保少女），會覺得這種經濟發展模式消耗地球的資源，不可以接受。

（二）低增值勞動密集行業的生產線已經遷移到東南亞國家。個人經驗：在香港買到的廉價服裝和鞋類，生產地是越南、印尼和（爆發軍事政變之前的）緬甸。2020 年初爆發的新冠肺炎疫情令外資撤出中國的步伐加快，跨國企業趁機重新規劃供應鏈 (Supply Chain)，採取所謂的 China plus one 策略，即是供應中國市場的商品就地生產，供應其他國家的生產線則設於中國以外，目的是減少依賴中國的生產線。萬一中國再度爆發傳染病，亦可以減少損失和比較容易控制情況。 

國際社會的制裁行動成為中國推動產業轉型的障礙

經濟學家的說法：參考其他國家的經驗，靠勞動密集工業擺脫貧窮其實相對地容易，下一步是進行產業升級，即是向高增值或高科技產業轉型，這個過程非常艱辛。有些國家因為錯過了轉型的最佳時機或缺乏客觀條件配合，結果停留在「中等收入陷阱」 (Middle-income trap) 二十年甚至更長的時間，才能走出瓶頸。如果是向資本密集產業轉型，更需要發展成熟的金融市場籌集資金。中國金融市場的集資能力，讀者心中有數，無須長篇大論。至於香港的角色，過去兩年的社會運動突顯了香港跟中國之間的矛盾。洋人看見匯豐獅子遭逢火劫，聽見小朋友喊 HK is not China，明白年輕一輩的港人未必願意見到香港繼續替中國籌錢、洗黑錢、做白手套或幹其他的壞事。透過香港投資中國這個概念開始失去市場。洋人不會公開講放棄香港（美國商會例外，原因大家都懂），但是會用行動保障自己的利益，即是用腳投票，同時跟華裔老婆離婚（提示：來自澳洲的傳媒大亨梅伯）。Facebook 的朱伯也來玩這一套？太遲了。大陸女孩想向鄧文迪學習？就算你比她漂亮聰明也沒用，因為那條路已經行不通了。

扯遠了，說回來。2018 年初開始，以美國為首的國際社會開始調整對華政策，不再是 Set aside differences and seek common ground or keep human right issues and commercial interests in separate tracks. The China syndrome is over. No more panda hugger. 今日的做法是封殺或圍堵，間中掌摑或暗諷。洋人開始修築防護電網和防洪隄壩，避免被中國（的企業或國民）盜取高科技和商業秘密（提示：可樂）或滲透科研機構或大學或傳媒。西方國家對中國侵犯人權行為（提示：新疆＋香港）所採取的制裁行動不利中資的海外收購合併活動，外國的監管機構也收緊了對跨國收購合併活動的盡職審查 (Due diligence)。不論是學術或商業層面的交流，都因為戰狼外交而增添障礙。問題是：進行產業升級所必需的關鍵技術能否由中國自主研發？自主研發去到那個程度？那些關鍵技術值得國家投資（提示：晶片、電動車、太空旅遊）？中共又是否懂得 Pick the winner？還是所謂的「自主研發」最終只會淪為利益輸送甚至是犯罪活動（提示：賀建奎＋預防愛滋病的人類嬰兒基因編輯技術），令中國再度被國際社會譴責？

美國的官方說法：制裁中國並非單邊主義或保護主義，而是為了保證遊戲規則不被扭曲，所有人都會得到公平對待。外國網民的觀點：這是一場正義與邪惡之戰，否則我們的下一代會被魔鬼所奴役（提示：The Lord of the Rings）。對，中國已經被視為魔鬼，跟俄羅斯或北韓屬於同一個 Category。香港股評人的說法：全球排華！證據？移居西方國家的華人或亞裔要面對語言或肢體暴力，人身安全受威脅。這種事情，廣東話叫「黑狗偷食，白狗當災！」在這種情況下，中國想借助西方世界（的科技和資金）引進尖端科技或進行產業的升級轉型，變得非常困難。一個不受歡迎的政權可能令產業升級需要更長的時間，亦即是說中國有可能會被困在瓶頸階段（U 字型的底部）超過二十年，最壞的情況是被超越或被邊緣化，也有可能長期被國際社會所冷待。

新興產業需要自由才能發展　但是中國的政治體制不容許

中國的政治體制也對產業轉型構成障礙。

互聯網的商業化和普及化從九十年代中開始，美國幾大科網巨企業（即：Amazon, Google, Facebook）隨後誕生，智能手機於 2007 年面世，年輕人從此埋頭玩社交媒體或透過網上渠道接收資訊，直接導致舊媒體（尤其是文字傳媒）的萎縮（或結業或裁員或賣盤）。發展至今，輪到金融業的商業模式改變（提示：數碼貨幣＋電子支付）。這一波的產業革命由訊息產業所帶動，是一個需要言論自由的行業。個別科網股（提示：Facebook）利用言論自由起家，但是得到影響力之後卻限制別人的言論自由，結果被網民譴責或拋棄，朱伯變成十惡不赦的魔鬼，做再多的慈善工作也沒 XYZ 用，在網上罵他的小朋友這樣說。

但是中國政府不願意給予人民更多的言論自由，而是利用新科技加強對老百姓的監控（提示：人面識別＋健康碼）。馬雲（提示：螞蟻集團＋湖畔大學）過去半年的遭遇可以用不同的角度解讀，例如：1. 中共內部的派系鬥爭（馬雲是江派還是習派？）。2. 科網企業在經濟層面的影響力增加令中共覺得受威脅必須及早防範（國際傳媒的觀點：No one is bigger than the party）。3. 中共想把新興產業國有化及用來對付外敵（例如：發動輿論戰）。4. 新興的訊息產業因為跟傳統銀行業爭奪貸款生意及客戶的個人資料但是監管的標準不同，令到金融監管機構出師有名（其實是銀行系統借助官府的力量對付搶飯碗的新興勢力）。炒埋一碟，任君選擇。

當新興產業被打壓，甚至有可能被扼殺於萌芽階段，新科技為當權者服務而非用來提高生產力或改變（企業的）商業模式和（老百姓的）生活方式，產業的升級轉型變得非常困難。如果新興產業被政權所摧毀，新科技被用來監控老百姓或對付異己，新的增長動力又從何而來？外資看在眼裡，只會加速撤退。至於香港人，年輕一輩跑到公共圖書館借閱 George Orwell 的 1984，讀過那本名著的中年人卻覺得偉大祖國已經超額完成了。Yes, big brother is watching you.

政治和經濟之間的矛盾怎樣解決？

於是又回到那個老問題：政治和社會制度能否進行改革，以配合經濟發展（產業的升級轉型）的需要？如果當權者的強硬政治路線不利經濟轉型，在一個沒有民主選舉的國家，政治和經濟之間的矛盾應該怎樣解決？表面上是經濟問題，其實是政治問題，而且是一個曠日持久的老問題：由於政治體制或管治思維落後，令產業的升級轉型舉步維艱，經濟發展因而停滯不前，如果從事低增值勞動密集行業的大量勞工因為無法轉型而淪為失業大軍，落入社會的底層，直接影響社會穩定。如果政治體制或管治思維無法配合經濟發展的需要，是否會導致民怨（因為收入分配越來越不平均）爆發？還是另一次的政變（搜尋：The China coup by Roger Garside）？政治和經濟之間的矛盾又會在那裡爆發？（社會的）上層還是下層？（中國的）核心還是邊緣（地帶）？這些大逆不道的殺頭問題，自己想。

插圖來源：Russell Cobb

延伸閱讀／參考資料：

內地最新人口總量超過 14 億人　保持低速增長

RTHK 2021-05-11 

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/k2/1590251-20210511.htm

節錄：內地公布第七次全國人口普查數據，總人口量超過 14 億人，15 至 59 歲人口雖然佔總人口達 63%。但較 2010 年的普查，下降 6.79 個百分點，60 歲以上人口佔總人口達 18%，較 10 年前升 5.44 個百分點，顯示內地人口老化情況較 10 年前嚴重，人口均衡發展在未來一段時間持續面臨壓力。國務院第七次全國人口普查領導小組副組長寧吉喆出席國新辦記者會，公布最新的人口普查數據。他表示， 2020 年相較 2010 年，內地總人口增加 7206 萬人，較 10 年的人口增長 5.35%，平均年增長 0.53%，但相較 10 年前的普查，每年年均增長率下降 0.04 百分點，反映中國在過去 10 年來，人口保持低速增長。寧吉喆表示，全國有超過 7 億名男性，女性則約 6 億 8 千多萬人，男女比例為每 100 名女性有 105 名男性，與 10 年前相比略有降低，反映人口性別結構持續改善。

China: The men who are single and the women who don't want kids

By Waiyee Yip
BBC News (May 25, 2021)

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57154574

Extract: China's census, released earlier this month, showed that around 12 million babies were born last year - a significant decrease from the 18 million in 2016, and the lowest number of births recorded since the 1960s. While the overall population grew, it moved at the slowest pace in decades, adding to worries that China may face a population decline sooner than expected.

Shrinking populations are problematic due to the inverted age structure, with more old people than young. When that happens, there won't be enough workers in the future to support the elderly, and there may be an increased demand for health and social care. As countries become more developed, birth rates tend to fall due to education or other priorities such as careers. Neighbouring countries like Japan and South Korea, for example, have also seen birth rates fall to record lows in recent years despite various government incentives for couples to have more children.

But experts say China's situation could be uniquely exacerbated given the number of men who are finding it difficult to find a wife in the first place, let alone think of starting a family. After all, there is a severe gender imbalance in the country - last year, there were 34.9 million more males than females. This is a hangover of the country's strict one-child policy, which was introduced in 1979 to slow population growth. In a culture that historically favours boys over girls, the policy led to forced abortions and a reported glut of new born boys from the 1980s onwards.

Weekend Long Read: How Chinese Society Fell Out of Love With Marriage

By Ren Zeping, Li Xiaotong and Hua Yanxue

Caixin (Mar 20, 2021)

https://www.caixinglobal.com/2021-03-20/weekend-long-read-how-chinese-society-fell-out-of-love-with-marriage-101677550.html?cxg=web&Sfrom=linkedin

Extract: Marriage is the foundation of a Chinese family. For individuals, tying the knot means an emotional connection — a sense of belonging to a family. Furthermore, a long-term harmonious marriage contributes to the stability of society. However, in recent years, the country’s divorce rate has been rising. There has been a change of mindset: young people are now pursuing independence and see wedlock as a padlock. At the same time, it is more difficult for them to start their own families due to the high costs of getting married and raising children. Some young people don’t want to get married, let alone bring a child into this world. China’s declining marriage and birth rates, along with an aging population, are reinforcing each other. The rising education level of the population is also playing a role in delaying marriage. Women have started outnumbering men in higher education programs in China. In 2017, the proportion of women in higher education reached 52.2%, up from 38.3% in 1998.

China’s Ascent May Soon Expose Its Achilles Heel

By Andrew Browne

Bloomberg (2021-05-08)

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2021-05-08/china-ascent-exposes-its-achilles-heel-the-new-economy-saturday

Extract: Most countries that grow old are fortunate enough to grow rich first. A graying Japan lives well off investments made during its most recent prime, and is likely to remain a global economic power for many years to come. China reverses this sequence: it’s about to get old before it gets rich. After four decades of restrictive family planning policies, the latest census may show its population is already shrinking. Will China’s rapid ascent to superpower status now also wilt?

Population size isn’t the main issue; composition also matters. China’s rise is likely to be thrown off by a massive age imbalance. By 2050, one in three Chinese will be over 60, a cohort of seniors so enormous that if they formed a country, its population would be comparable to America today. Over the same period, China will go from having eight workers for each retiree down to two, turning a healthy pyramid-shaped population structure into a rectangle.

Once a country’s birth rate starts falling, it almost invariably keeps falling — in China’s case, at alarming speed. Liang observes that with the average Chinese family producing 1.2 children, China’s population effectively halves every generation. Given that possibility, you might imagine that the government would abandon all remaining birth control restrictions (it relaxed the One Child family policy in 2015 to allow two children.) But that doesn’t seem to be in the cards.

In fact, even as the government started rolling out birth control policies in the early 1980s, Chinese demographers were pushing back, arguing that China’s population growth would naturally taper off after a Mao-era baby boom as the country grew more prosperous. But they were ignored. A Leninist state reluctant to course-correct, even as it faces a demographic tipping point, invites profound consequences that could endanger its growth, social stability and place in the world. Demography is not destiny, but in China politics are decisive.

BBC - Life for women and the family in Nazi Germany

Part of History

Life in Nazi Germany, 1933-45

https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zxb8msg/revision/1

Extract: Nazi views on the role of the family. Hitler promoted the importance of a stable, traditional family. Men were to be in charge and protect their family. Women were to serve and nurture their family. Hitler said this was “the natural order”. Hitler wanted to use families to increase the size of the population and to ensure it was pure Aryan. Nazi views on the role of women. In public, Hitler said women were “equal but different from men”, but he actually thought women were inferior. He believed women’s lives should revolve around the three 'Ks': Kinder, Küche, Kirche (Children, Kitchen, Church). The Nazis expected women to stay at home, look after the family and produce children in order to secure the future of the Aryan race. Women were to serve and nurture their family while men were in charge and had to protect their family. Hitler said this was "the natural order".

Employment. Hitler said a woman’s role was to be a mother and not to work outside the home. This was for two reasons: He wanted them to raise more Aryan children; He needed their jobs for the unemployed men. Measures were introduced which strongly discouraged women from working, including:

• training girls at school to be housewives and discouraging them from going on to higher education;
• the introduction of the Law for the Reduction of Unemployment, which gave women financial incentives to stay at home;
• purging the civil service and the professions of women;
• barring women from being judges in 1936;
• not allowing them to do jury service or be Reichstag deputies because Hitler did not think they were able to “think logically or reason objectively”;
• putting single women under pressure to give their jobs to unemployed men. Single women were allowed to work, mainly outside the professions and primarily in "caring" jobs, for example nursing and childcare, and factories.
  

（Auntie 的推介：希特拉強迫女人做生育機器的手段。）

Asia Society

China May Be Running Out of Time To Escape the Middle-Income Trap

https://asiasociety.org/new-york/china-may-be-running-out-time-escape-middle-income-trap

Extract: A former senior director for Asia in President Barack Obama's National Security Council says that China only has “about five years” to become a high-income economy, or it will likely find itself stuck in the middle-income trap. Speaking at Asia Society in New York on Tuesday, Evan Medeiros noted that China has been what the World Bank considers a middle-income economy — one where per capita income is between (USD) $1,000 and $12,235 — for about 25 years.

The “middle-income trap” is a theory of economic development in which wages in a country rise to the point that growth potential in export-driven low-skill manufacturing is exhausted before it attains the innovative capability needed to boost productivity and compete with developed countries in higher value-chain industries. Thus, there are few avenues for further growth — and wages stagnate.

China has already begun to show signs that it is growing past the manufacturing-led growth model that has fueled rapid economic growth in recent decades. The country’s working age population has been declining since 2012, and as early as 2013 some economists declared that China had begun to enter the “Lewis Turning Point” — where worker wages begin to rise faster than the rate of inflation because the surplus labor pool has been exhausted.

Medeiros said China needs to carry out serious market reforms in order to help drive the growth needed to “graduate” from middle to upper-income level in time. But so far the reforms have been a “big disappointment” for the international community, he said, as few of them have actually been accomplished. “Are Xi Jinping（習近平）and [Premier] Li Keqiang （李克強） ready to pay the necessary political costs [to avoid the middle-income trap]?” Medeiros asked. “I would say the jury is still out on that.”

What is 'Lewis turning point' and its importance for China

By Rishi Shah, ET BureauLast

Updated: Jul 30, 2012

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/what-is-lewis-turning-point-and-its-importance-for-china/articleshow/15263147.cms?from=mdr

Extract: The International Monetary Fund has predicted that China would reach this stage somewhere between 2020 and 2025.

What is the Lewis turning point? It is based on a development model created by Nobel prize winning economist Arthur Lewis, who looked at the dual aspect of a developing economy. The growth of the economy is driven by the modern sector with the support of unlimited supplies of labour, which is mainly drawn from the agricultural sector. This migrant labour force accepts low wages corresponding to the living standards prevalent in farming. The modern sector (also called the capitalist sector) is able to reap profits and—helped by low labour costs — generate savings. The growing savings finance the capital formation for expansion. However, a point is reached when no more labour is forthcoming from the underdeveloped, or agricultural, sector and wages begin to rise. This is known as the Lewis turning point.

Why is it important for China? China has continued to grow for the last three decades due to the cheap labour it gets from its vast rural hinterland, which is still a traditional, or subsistence, economy. But due to various administrative measures taken by the government, such as the one-child policy, their demographic structure is changing and the amount of surplus labour is also decreasing. China has also experienced labour strikes and shortages and wage increases in the past two years, prompting many researchers to debate whether the Lewis turning point had been reached. For any country that reaches the Lewis turning point, its industrialised sector slows down as cheap labour is no longer available and consequently its growth too starts declining. 

【經濟前瞻】為什麼有「中等收入陷阱」？中國能否跨過？

Orange News (2021-01-07)

https://www.orangenews.hk/books/147371/

節錄：擺脫中等收入陷阱卻相當困難。到目前為止，只有日本和「亞洲四小龍」從中等收入經濟體成為高收入經濟體。拉美國家現在依然是中等收入國家。很多中東國家雖然擁有豐富的資源，人均 GDP 水準很高，卻沒有進入發達國家行列。

人均 GDP 低的國家在起步階段，具有勞動力無限供給的特徵和人口紅利。充分發揮勞動力較大的比較優勢，通過全球化在國際市場上取得競爭優勢，推動了經濟高速發展。與此同時，發達國家的比較優勢在於，技術創新處於最前沿，擁有充足的物質資本、人力資本以及創意。因此，在全球化發展過程中，各類國家的經濟表現顯示為一個 U 形曲線：低收入國家和發達國家都從全球化獲益較多，而處於中間的（中等收入）國家獲益比較少。中等收入國家在全球化過程中獲益較少的原因在於其比較優勢不顯著，在勞動密集型產業上無法與低收入國家相比，在高科技產品上無法與發達國家相比，所以不能成為全球化最主要的獲益者。

中國已經出現勞動力成本提高、比較優勢下降的情況，與此同時，中國又是一個「未富先老」的國家。中國在資本、技術、教育方面依然不具有競爭力。如果在失去原有比較優勢的同時，並沒有獲得新的比較優勢，就很有可能長期處在 U 形曲線的底端。比較優勢的真空狀態將減少從全球化中獲得的收益，進而經濟增長進一步減速，直至嚴重陷入中等收入陷阱。中國還沒有陷入中等收入陷阱，只是在減速，減速有可能成為中等收入陷阱的一個開端。最有名的陷入中等收入陷阱的是拉美的很多國家，還有亞洲的馬來西亞等國家。我們總結這些國家的經驗，發現中等收入陷阱有「四部曲」，也可以看作四個步驟，它們有時候也是並存的。

《讀懂中國經濟：大國拐點與轉型路徑》

作者：蔡昉

出版社：開明書店

出版時間：2019 年 11 月

肺炎疫情是否會阻礙中國跨越中等收入陷阱

BBC 中文網（2020-03-20）

https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/chinese-news-51958430

節錄：經濟轉型受到的影響。這場疫情來的不是時候。一方面，中國經濟已在承受下行壓力，另一方面，中國經濟正在努力轉型升級，試圖跨過中等收入陷阱。

中國清華大學國家金融研究院院長朱民認為，中國人均 GDP 達到一萬美元，中國從今年開始開始走向高收入國家階段，能不能跨越中等收入陷阱成為核心問題，而正在此時發生疫情。中國在改革開放後，利用人口紅利，搞大規模低水平的製造業，以及大量基礎設施建設，經濟總量不斷走高，然而這些「低垂的果實」已被摘完。此時，擺在中國面前的中等收入陷阱裏，有深陷其中的墨西哥、巴西、馬來西亞；往前望，是鳳凰涅磐的台灣、韓國、新加坡。

能不能跨過去，成為中國最近兩年的經濟主題：「一帶一路」在地域上擴展中國以外的需求，「中國製造 2025」是科技含量上向更高層級發展，加大服務業比重是在結構上優化，三個維度不同，但都為創造新動能，邁過陷阱。三者都在疫情面前停下腳步。哈佛大學肯尼迪學院學者歐緯倫博士（William Overholt）此前表示，中國如果處理不好經濟，像日本一樣陷入停滯，情況將更糟，因為中國收入水平還遠不及日本，中國人不會滿足這一水平，不滿會轉變為政治上的巨大壓力。

China Coup: The Great Leap to Freedom

Roger Garside

Copyright Date: 2021

Edition: 1

Published by: University of California Press

https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv1h9dk34

Pages: 256

https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctv1h9dk34

Extract: Li Keqiang（李克強）, China’s premier and second-ranking member of its Communist Party, stares in horror at the Reuters Chinese-language feed on his computer screen. He is reading a press release by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) announcing the imminent suspension of trading on all US exchanges of the securities issued by five of the Chinese companies with the highest capital valuations in the American markets. The reason given is that the SEC lacks confidence in the veracity of the financial information those companies supply to investors. The suspension will last from 9:30 a.m. Eastern Standard Time on Monday… 

（Auntie 的補白：這是英國外交官寫的宮廷政變劇本。）

圖書館借閱龍虎榜：

《射鵰》續居榜首《1984》排第十

HK01 (2021-04-12)

https://www.hk01.com/

節錄：康樂及文化事務署回覆立法會財委會特別會議的質詢，披露去年公共圖書館十大書藉借閱排行榜。成人中文小說類書籍方面，金庸名著《射鵰英雄傳》、《神鵰俠侶》繼續蟬聯排行榜首兩位，《倚天屠龍記》和《鹿鼎記》分別排第三和第五位，亦舒有五本小說作品登上十大排行榜，喬治．歐威爾 (George Orwell) 著作、講述極權主義的小說《1984》成功上榜排第十。至於成人英文小說類書籍，喬治．歐威爾兩本著作上榜，諷刺蘇共及史太林的小說《動物農莊》(Animal Farm) 排名第三，《1984》英文版排第九。

ThoughtCo.

"Who Controls the Past Controls the Future" Quote Meaning

What George Orwell Meant and How That Applies Today

https://www.thoughtco.com/what-does-that-quote-mean-archaeology-172300

Summary: "Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past." George Orwell's famous quote comes from his justifiably famous science fiction novel "Nineteen Eighty-Four" (also written as 1984), and that's where the best information about what that quote means may be found.

Key Points:

• "Who controls the past controls the future" is a quote from George Orwell's 1949 novel, "1984." 
• The novel describes a dystopian future, where all citizens are manipulated by a single political party. 
• Orwell was writing when information was being controlled by a minority of people, and his novel contains references to Nazi Germany. 
• The quote still reminds us that it is important to identify the sources of the information we receive. 

Who controls the past, controls the future: who controls the present, controls the past… The mutability of the past is the central tenet of Ingsoc. Past events, it is argued, have no objective existence, but survive only in written records and in human memories. The past is whatever the records and the memories agree upon. And since the Party is in full control of all records, and in equally full control of the minds of its members, it follows that the past is whatever the Party chooses to make it. 

 "Nineteen Eighty-Four" was written in 1949 and is today considered a classic, and widely read as an assignment in high schools and colleges everywhere. If you haven't read it or read it recently, "1984" is also available to be read for free on the Internet in several places, including George-Orwell.org.

香港美國商會調查指四成受訪會員擬離開香港

RTHK 2021-05-12

https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/k2/1590466-20210512.htm

節錄：香港美國商會最新調查顯示，42% 受訪會員考慮或計劃離開香港，當中 62% 人表示《香港國安法》令人不安，近 50% 人認為檢疫安排令他們難以出行或探訪家人，逾 40%人對香港未來競爭力感到悲觀。訪問在本月 5 日至 9 日進行，325 名美商會會員回覆，佔會員總數 24%。計劃或考慮離港受訪者中，只有 3%人打算立即離港，10% 預計在夏季結束前離開，15% 計劃會年底前走，48% 人在 3 至 5 年內離開。商會引述部分受訪者意見，有人提到香港的人不開心，社會不穩定的風險高；亦有人指香港工作文化已不及昔日國際化；現在更多工作機會給予了內地人；亦有受訪者說，在《香港國安法》下「紅線」是模糊及反覆，不想繼續憂慮不知不覺地說了或寫了甚麼而被捕。美國商會說，基於今次調查結果，強烈建議特區政府密切關注在港外國人的看法，加深對香國際人才了解，緩解對方的擔憂，以免香港失去競爭力。

Harvard Business Review

What the West Gets Wrong About China

Three fundamental misconceptions 

by Rana Mitter and Elsbeth Johnson

From the Magazine (May–June 2021)

https://hbr.org/2021/05/what-the-west-gets-wrong-about-china

Extract: China emerged as a global power, with the second-largest economy in the world and a burgeoning middle class eager to spend. One thing hasn’t changed, though: Many Western politicians and business executives still don’t get China. Believing, for example, that political freedom would follow the new economic freedoms, they wrongly assumed that China’s internet would be similar to the freewheeling and often politically disruptive version developed in the West. And believing that China’s economic growth would have to be built on the same foundations as those in the West, many failed to envisage the Chinese state’s continuing role as investor, regulator, and intellectual property owner.

Why do leaders in the West persist in getting China so wrong? In our work we have come to see that people in both business and politics often cling to three widely shared but essentially false assumptions about modern China. As we’ll argue in the following pages, these assumptions reflect gaps in their knowledge about China’s history, culture, and language that encourage them to draw persuasive but deeply flawed analogies between China and other countries.

[Myth 1]

Economics and Democracy Are Two Sides of the Same Coin

[Myth 2]

Authoritarian Political Systems Can’t Be Legitimate

[Myth 3]

The Chinese Live, Work, and Invest Like Westerners

相關的文章：

逆天而活

2018 年 2 月 24 日

http://xiaoshousha.blogspot.hk/2018/02/blog-post_24.html

節錄：你不能病，因為僱主只想要健康的上班族，而公立醫院已經瀕臨爆煲邊緣，急症室的輪候時間超過 8 小時，上病房要等超過 12 小時，高官鼓勵市民光顧私人醫生或私家醫院。小病？食藥啦！怕副作用？乜乜乜啦！我鬧鬧鬧，鬧到你食為止！（提示：必理痛）工作時間過長令巴士（公車）司機過勞，結果導致交通意外，造成人命傷亡？說明了香港的勞動人口短缺，輸入外勞勢在必行！

棺材本托市

2017 年 4 月 19 日

http://xiaoshousha.blogspot.hk/2017/04/blog-post_19.html

節錄：官府替私營的服務供應商製造需求以及提供收入來源，而部份的私營服務供應商會把生意上市。結果是：本應直接用於窮人身上的公帑，又或者是窮人的棺材本，透過迂迴曲折的渠道，又或者是複雜的理財產品，變相補貼某間上市公司（提示：港鐵、領展）。同一概念，改頭換臉，改名換姓，不斷翻炒，打劫窮人，進貢權貴，是香港公共政策的特色。

入行障礙（一）

2012 年 12 月 7 日

http://xiaoshousha.blogspot.hk/2012/12/blog-post_7.html

節錄：分析行業前景的五力模式 (Porter’s five forces) 中，有幾種常見的入行障礙 (Entry barriers / Barriers to entry)。其中一種，叫資本要求 (Capital requirements)，意思是：進軍某個行業，需要龐大的起動資金，並非普通人或者中小企能夠負擔，於是入行者稀，容易形成壟斷。香港人的婚姻，物質門檻高，是個好例子。網上的電車男慨嘆，香港的戀愛婚姻市場貧富懸殊，有錢的老男人一拖幾，窮小子則只能打飛機（高射砲）。

中年盤點（四）

2016 年 7 月 1 日

http://xiaoshousha.blogspot.hk/2016/07/blog-post.html

節錄：至於那些催迫女人結婚生仔的言論，背後牽涉商業利益或政治任務，視女人為交數工具，想把魔爪伸入女人的身體。女人的身體，向來是戰場。如果你害怕或屈服，對方會以為自己法力高強，從此咬住你不放，甚至變本加厲。應該怎樣做女人，由你自己來決定。跟傳媒學做女人，你只會更加迷惘，成為自我形象低落以及缺乏安全感的笨女人，容易被操控。

衍生需求

2011 年 9 月 19 日

http://xiaoshousha.blogspot.hk/2011/09/blog-post_19.html

節錄：（主流傳媒）長年累月替女人洗腦，讓她們為結婚生子而活。與此同時，繼續抹黑和打壓那些特立獨行，拒絕按照時間表和方程式做人的大膽女子。這是主流傳媒的生存之道，因為挑動女人的神經，製造恐慌，方可自保。容易焦慮的女人，成為一個夕陽工業的救星，背後是龐大的商業利益，不難理解。

學院派（三）

2018 年 9 月 5 日

http://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2018/09/blog-post.html

節錄：幾年前＜經濟學人＞雜誌已經有一篇文章，指出越來越多的亞洲女性選擇逃離婚姻，但是思想傳統的亞洲男性卻依然希望成家立室生兒育女，於是造就不少異地婚姻。結果大家都知道了：港男北上娶妻，台灣佬用錢買越南妹，國產剩男跑去烏克蘭娶妻生混血孩子。對，重男輕女的社會，輸出尋找生育機器的炮兵團。

「一帶一路」的副作用

2019 年 5 月 28 日

https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2019/05/blog-post.html

節錄：跟隨「一帶一路」基建項目走出去的中國男人（例如：工程師以及國企的男性員工），為了解決生理需要以及尋找生育機器，用錢購買來自南亞或中亞的貧窮家庭或弱勢社群的土著女子，導致（有大陸人或當地人扮演中間人的）人口販賣活動出現，而土著女子跟隨丈夫到中國生活之後，有可能淪為性奴。

陪跑（二）

2017 年 2 月 14 日

http://xiaoshousha.blogspot.hk/2017/02/blog-post_14.html

節錄：中年人厭倦競爭，年輕人不願付出，這個城市會失去活力和創意，走上日本之路。對，年輕人不願結婚生育，可以輸入大陸人，減慢人口老化，順便換血和執行政治任務（接管具備戰略價值的行業），但是洋鬼子（外資）不笨，他們明白香港變了質，不過是另一個中國城市，於是分階段撤退。一個由洋人開拓的國際大都會，最後隨著洋人的離開而走下坡，是非常合理的結局。

金融中心的黑暗面

2020 年 1 月 15 日

https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2020/01/blog-post.html

節錄：難怪小朋友在網上論壇這樣寫：「香港失去集資和走資的功能，令支共（中共）無法借錢還債，加速支爆 (China meltdown)。終極攬炒，玉石俱焚！香港失去最重要的戰略價值，但可以加快獨立的過程，那是我們唯一的出路！」從這個角度看，匯豐獅子遭逢火劫（提示：星火同盟），令藍絲大媽落淚，年輕黃絲卻處之泰然，當中的情緒落差，也就不難理解。

草船借箭

2015 年 6 月 5 日

http://xiaoshousha.blogspot.hk/2015/06/blog-post.html

節錄：過去兩、三年，中國的 FDI (Foreign Direct Investment) 和 ODI (Overseas Direct Investment) 的金額接近持平。外資大行經濟師的看法：前者降，後者升，趨勢持續的話，幾年之後 ODI 將會超越 FDI ，走出去的會超過引進來的。對西方國家的跨國企業來說，中國的實體經濟早已不再吸引，下一輪的投資熱點可能是跟美國關係改善的緬甸或古巴。因應形勢轉變，偉大祖國試圖透過香港，引導外資進入金融市場，透過另一管道，讓洋鬼子繼續為中國的經濟增長提供動力。

Made in Myanmar

2017 年 10 月 24 日

https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.hk/2017/10/made-in-myanmar.html

節錄：緬甸已經融入西方主導的國際經濟秩序，正處於食物鏈的底層，即是被剝削的勞動人民。這是一個尋找窮人，讓他們為發達國家服務的遊戲。某國的生產成本上升？立即把生產線轉移至另一個更窮的國家，只要窮人還沒有死盡，剝削窮人的遊戲就可以繼續，廉價的快速成衣 (Fast fashion) 供應源源不絕，多到可以送去回收箱，部份再回歸第三世界，今次據說是非洲國家。人與物資，不斷輪迴。背後的動力，是跨國的資本流動以及物流管理。

翻身的日子

2017 年 12 月 27 日

https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.hk/2017/12/blog-post_27.html

節錄：中資的收購合併活動，不但令港人難以翻身，也令到這個世界變得越來越複雜和脆弱（提示：海航、安邦、萬達、復星）。甚麼時候偉大祖國終於成為席捲全球同時禍及香港的金融風暴的源頭，天曉得。中國人集體「翻身」的日子，恐怕是地球人付出代價之時，而香港會首當其衝，率先陪葬。（原因：香港銀行業的內地相關貸款佔資產總額的比例升至接近兩成，而紅籌國企 H 股佔恒生指數的比重已經超過一半。）

隱身術

2019 年 9 月 27 日

https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2019/09/blog-post_27.html

節錄：早於 2018 年初中美貿易戰爆發之前，紅色資本的海外併購活動已經遇到困難。西方國家基於國家安全考慮，對中資說不（提示：倫敦交易所），又或者設置障礙。中資的回應方式，是動用港人、台商、南洋華僑甚至親共洋人(Panda Hugger) 當人頭或 Frontman，讓大股東可以退居幕後。這些雕蟲小技，曾經欺騙外資銀行的華為公主孟晚舟（提示：匯豐＋Skycom）應該懂。

No more panda hugger

2019 年 9 月 13 日

https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2019/09/no-more-panda-hugger.html

節錄：但是洋人不笨，當他們看見一國兩制不過是謊言，香港的權力體制和遊戲規則開始向中國靠攏（證據：國泰航空高層辭職的消息由大陸官媒首先發佈），警察的質素下降至第三世界的水平，會分階段撤退的。沒有外資的香港，會淪為另一個中國城市，股市變唐人街中餐館，就是這樣。對於不懂得玩平衡，只懂得趕盡殺絕的中國共產黨來說，是自作孽或自取其咎。

Know Your Customer

2019 年 11 月 2 日

https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2019/11/know-your-customer.html

節錄：香港的營商環境發生質變，不論是華資、中資還是外資，都需要重新評估在香港做生意的風險，重新審視這個城市所潛藏的權力體制和遊戲規則，也要重新認識年輕一輩的黃絲顧客。華資可以派錢或捐地自保，外資可以分階段撤出香港，但是中資沒有這些選項。

抄襲＋灌水

2021 年 2 月 10 日

https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2021/02/blog-post.html

節錄：你見到中國的科網股例如阿里爸爸（港股編號：9988）也面對同樣的罪名，旗下的支付寶母公司螞蟻集團的上市計畫在最後一刻被煞停，之後有傳聞阿里爸爸已經與中國的監管機構就業務重組計劃達成協議，螞蟻集團會轉型為一家金融控股公司，面對與銀行業同一標準的資本要求，即是營利能力被削弱，影響估值和降低集資金額。如果上市籌集的資金不足，是否要把股份賣給國家（還是把股份上繳給黨中央？），說得出來的（反壟斷）又是否藉口，自己想。

數碼貨幣 (Part 2)

2020 年 10 月 7 日

https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2020/10/part-2.html

節錄：是一個借助新科技全面監控小市民的國家工程的一部份，又或者應該說是那個國家工程的不同面向（即：健康碼是醫療或交通層面＋數碼貨幣是金融或消費層面）。想像一下：植入晶片＋攞命國產疫苗＋有健康碼才可以出門以及去某個城市＋用數碼人民幣出糧並且要去指定的商店購買糧食和日用品＋用社會信用評分制度決定閣下是否可以使用公共資源以及得到那個級數的服務，加起來的綜合效果是甚麼，自己想。

健康碼 = 敲脚骨 + 分餅仔　

2020 年 6 月 20 日

http://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2020/06/blog-post_20.html

節錄：粵港澳三地互認「健康碼」是否官商（私營醫療系統）勾結發瘟疫財，兼且把市民的健康資料上繳國家（用來協助偉大祖國發展電子監控系統），小市民是否被迫看指定的醫生兼且交出個人私隱，用來換取穿梭三地的權利（一項閣下本來擁有的免費權利），自己想。讀到這裡，你應該明白，為甚麼紅色政客（提示：民建聯、工聯會）致力推動引入粵港澳三地互認的「健康碼」以及向特區政府爭取涵蓋中港家庭以及旅客。

代理人

2014 年 4 月 2 日

http://xiaoshousha.blogspot.hk/2014/04/blog-post.html

節錄：改革開放之後的做法，是透過把具備戰略價值和影響國家安全的行業（例如：電訊、能源、航空、銀行、保險、傳媒）交給太子黨經營與謀利，換取他們的合作，從而鞏固政權，而這些行業的龍頭國企則透過國有銀行（即：建農工中）得到低成本的營運資金。這樣做，是分贓。即：打劫老百姓，賄賂太子黨。不甘心被剝削的老百姓，把血汗錢投入地下金融體系，溫州民間信貸，影子銀行，便是這樣搞出來的。

雙軌制（一） 

2011 年 10 月 14 日

http://xiaoshousha.blogspot.hk/2011/10/blog-post_14.html

節錄：溫州民間借貸爆煲，情節似曾相識。簡單地說，又是雙軌制惹的禍。原因不外是官倒加三角債，國有銀行體系為特權階級服務，無法發揮應有的金融中介功能，而民間的游資太多，老百姓的投資渠道太少，為了抗通漲，於是把錢投進高利貸市場，令火上加油。換言之，舊瓶新酒，借屍還魂。

28/05/2021