Source:
https://www.brookings.edu/books/the-uses-and-abuses-of-weaponized-interdependence/
Weaponized
Interdependence 的意思，是利用全球一體化
(Globalization) 年代所建立的經濟上互相依賴網絡（例如：戰略物資的供應鏈）發動攻擊。操作方法：只要集中力量攻擊那個跨國網絡的咽喉點、阻塞點或瓶頸
(Bottleneck)，向敵國發動經濟戰爭，就可以迫使對方屈服、讓步或投降。
相關的概念：Geoeconomic Coercion，意思是利用經濟手段達到地緣政治目的。
美國的國際關係學者 Henry
Farrell 以及 Abraham Newman 曾經寫書（插圖），解釋 Weaponized
Interdependence 這個概念，分析美國如何運用經濟手段脅迫敵國以及所產生的後果（例如：地下銀行系統，加密貨幣交易所，俄羅斯的影子艦隊）。
經濟學家 Paul Krugman 近期也寫文章討論這個概念。 Paul Krugman 有影響力，他較早前寫中國貿易順差的文章，其重點被美國財政部長貝森特（Scott Kenneth Homer Bessent）不開名引用，在鏡頭前向中國施加壓力。
Weaponized Interdependence 的例子：
（一）美國用來對付金融機構的次級制裁 (Secondary sanction): 某國的銀行因為跟被美國制裁的個人或實體（提示：伊朗或俄羅斯）交易而被踢出美元體系（提示：SWIFT）之外（提示：Banque Misr, Egypt's
second-largest bank）。這種玩法，建制派華文傳媒稱之為「美元霸權」或「金融武器化」。外資銀行因此成為地緣政治的磨心，導致合規 (Compliance) 成本增加，也為銀行營運增加難度。
（二）美國在今年二月底擊殺伊朗最高領導人哈梅內伊（Ali Khamenei）之後，伊朗關閉霍爾木茲海峽（Strait of Hormuz），令油價上升，傷害美國的利益。
（三）美國禁止高端晶片出口中國，中國的回應是禁止稀土（Rare earth）出口美國，而高端階晶片和稀土（Rare earth）都是軍民兩用的戰略物資。
解釋：上述例子中的 SWIFT 、霍爾木茲海峽、高端晶片和稀土（Rare earth）都是某個跨國經濟網絡或供應鏈 (Supply Chain) 中的 Chokepoint（咽喉點、阻塞點或瓶頸）。對準這些咽喉點發動攻擊（經濟戰爭），就可以令敵國（例如：俄羅斯、中國、北韓與伊朗）屈服、讓步或投降。這種玩法並非美國的專利，伊朗或中國也來這一套，令戰爭的模式改變。過去，摧毀一個國家的經濟需要封鎖港口或圍困城市。今日，美國政府只要在網上發布一則聲明，就足以癱瘓對手的金融命脈或鎖死某條資金鏈（提示：Debanking），令敵國難以繼續抵抗。手段精準和狠辣，符合成本效益。正所謂：打蛇打七寸，擒賊先擒王，做事要抓要害。
結論：八十年代開始的全球化（Globalization）所建立的龐大跨國供應鏈，成為大國博弈（經濟戰爭）的戰場。那些互相依賴或共生的關係，曾經帶來巨大的經濟利益，讓跨國企業享受窮國的人口紅利，也讓窮國的部份人口脫貧，以及令中間人（香港）得到好處。今天就成為某國的弱點，被敵人針對。那些共同富貴的日子，原來是為撕破臉做準備。沒有永遠的朋友，只有永遠的利益。敵人比朋友更了解你，因為那個跨國網絡敵人有份鋪墊，或參與營運，甚至是擁有主導權（例如：SWIFT）。這個道理非常古龍，也很道家（提示：《道德經》第五十八章：禍兮福之所倚，福兮禍之所伏），同時也是國際政治的底層邏輯。至於中間人（香港）的命運，大國相爭，買辦死先。
正所謂：三十年河東，三十年河西。風向變了，但是某些人的思想趕不上。這種人的腦袋，也是一種 Chokepoint（咽喉點、阻塞點或瓶頸）。如果這個腦袋屬於某國領導人，會產生怎樣的影響，自己想。
延伸閱讀／參考資料：
Weaponized Interdependence
Who has the power in a trading world?
Paul Krugman
Sep 06, 2026
∙ Paid
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/weaponized-interdependence
Key Points:
- On Friday Donald Trump threatened to cut off
all trade with nations with which the United States runs a trade deficit. His
demand, oddly, was directed at the Federal Reserve: He would impose trade
embargoes unless the Fed cuts interest rates.
- It is, instead, about how to think about a
world in which governments — even the government of the
United States, which created the rules-based
trading system that prevailed until recently — increasingly
use threats to cut off international trade as a tool of coercion.
- “Geoeconomics” — the study of the ways governments can use national
economic strength in pursuit of geopolitical objectives — is a hot topic right
now, both among scholars and at international institutions.
- The International Monetary Fund made geoeconomics the theme of the
June issue of its F&D magazine. Geoeconomics is the theme of the European Central Bank’s
annual research conference, taking place next week, at which I’m giving a talk
on “economic size and economic power.”
- Specifically, I
want to talk about “weaponized interdependence,” a term coined in 2019 by the
political scientists Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman. Farrell and Newman
focused mainly on national governments’ efforts to exploit their control of
international networks, such as America’s use of the dollar’s central role in
the international monetary system to impose sanctions on nations it considers
hostile.
- At this point, however, weaponized interdependence is everywhere: Iran attempting to force
the United States to call off its war by closing the Strait of Hormuz, China
threatening the West with a cutoff of rare earths, the Trump administration using the threat of tariffs to
pressure Canada to remove cultural protections for French — or become the 51st
state?
- But how should we think about weaponized
interdependence? There is a rapidly burgeoning theoretical and empirical
research literature on geoeconomics, surveyed for example by Mohr and Trebesch
(2025.)
- But this rapidly growing field isn’t yet part of the standard way we
teach international economics, let alone the way people influential in policy
discuss the world.
- I could do today is lay out in a very simple,
maybe simplistic way what I believe to be some of the main insights from
thinking about international trade as a potential tool of coercion — and what it says about the current global
situation.
F&D
(Finance & Development)
June
2026 Issue
International
Monetary Fund
Geoeconomics
and the return of economic statecraft
https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/fandd/article/2026/06/fd-june26-geoeconomics.pdf
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) focused the June
2026 issue of Finance & Development (F&D) magazine entirely on
geoeconomics—the intersection of global economics, national security, and trade
coercion.
Key Themes of the June 2026 F&D Issue
AI-generated summary, provided by Google
Key Points:
- Geoeconomic Coercion: Articles by experts like Jeffry Frieden examine how nations use tariffs, export
controls, and financial sanctions as geopolitical leverage instead of military
force, noting significant efficiency and innovation costs.
- Weaponized Interdependence: Contributors analyze how controlling central choke
points (such as financial services or critical minerals) yields hegemonic
power, though over-coercion encourages targeted rivals to build alternative
payment systems.
- Policy Shifts: Authors highlight a broader transition from
post-Cold War market efficiency toward national economic resilience, state
intervention, and resource nationalization.
- Global Fragmentation Risks: Discussions led by trade economists focus on how
multilateral systems must adapt to avoid permanent economic fracturing between
competing global powers.
Review
by Paul Krugman, “The American Way of Economic War”
December
6, 2023
Keywords:
featured, Foreign Affairs, pin, Weaponized Interdependence
https://henryfarrell.net/interview-with-paul-krugman-the-american-way-of-economic-war/
Excerpt:
Suppose that a company in Peru wants to do business
with a company in Malaysia. It should not be hard for the firms to
make a deal. Sending money across national borders is generally
straightforward, and so is the international transfer of large quantities of
data.
But there’s a catch: whether or not the companies realize it, their
transactions of both financial information and data will almost certainly be
indirect and will probably pass through the United States or institutions over
which the U.S. government has substantial control. When they do, Washington will
have the power to monitor the exchange and, if desired, stop it in its
tracks—to stop, in other words, the Peruvian company and the Malaysian company
from doing business with each other. In fact, the
United States could prevent many Peruvian and Malaysian companies from trading
goods in general, largely cutting the countries off from the international
economy.
Part of what undergirds this power is well known: much of the
world’s trade is conducted in dollars. The dollar is
one of the few currencies that almost all major banks will accept, and
certainly the most widely used one. …
Underground Empire: How America Weaponized the World
Economy
by Henry Farrell & Abraham Newman
https://henryfarrell.net/underground-empire-2/
Description:
Arthur Ross Book Award, Council on Foreign Relations,
Bronze Medal
Shortlisted for the Lionel Gelber Prize
Named a best book of the year by Foreign Affairs and
Responsible Statecraft
Intro: A deeply researched investigation that
reveals how the United States is like a spider at the heart of an international
web of surveillance and control, which it weaves in the form of globe-spanning
networks such as fiber optic cables and obscure payment systems.
America’s security state first started to
weaponize these channels after 9/11, when they seemed like necessities to
combat terrorism―but now they’re a matter of course. Multinational companies like AT&T and Citicorp
build hubs, which they use to make money, but which the government can also
deploy as choke points. Today’s headlines about trade wars, sanctions, and
technology disputes are merely tremors hinting at far greater seismic shifts
beneath the surface.
Slowly but surely, Washington has turned the
most vital pathways of the world economy into tools of domination over foreign
businesses and countries, whether they are rivals or allies, allowing the U.S.
to maintain global supremacy. In the
process, we have sleepwalked into a new struggle for empire. Using true
stories, field-defining findings, and original reporting, Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman show how the most ordinary
aspects of the post–Cold War economy have become realms of subterfuge and
coercion, and what we must do to ensure that this new arms race doesn’t spiral
out of control.
Co-author
Abraham Newman
Abraham
L. Newman is a professor at the School of Foreign Service and Government
Department at Georgetown University. Known for his research on the politics
generated by globalization, he serves as a frequent commentator on
international affairs, appearing on news programs ranging from Al Jazeera to
Deutsche Welle and NPR. His work has been published in leading outlets like The
New York Times, The Washington Post, Nature, Science, Foreign Affairs, Foreign
Policy, Harvard Business Review, and Politico.
The Weaponized Interdependence Theory
A main area of interest for Henry Farrell,
along with Abraham Newman, is the theory of Weaponized Interdependence,
starting with an article providing a structural theory of how information and
economic networks enable state coercion.
Henry is maintaining a separate Weaponized
Interdependence website cataloging other articles related to the theory.
http://www.weaponizedinterdependence.com/
What is weaponized interdependence?
AI-generated summary, provided by Google
In a world of weaponized interdependence,
power belongs to the nations that control central nodes and chokepoints in
global information and economic networks.
What is Weaponized Interdependence?
Coined by international relations scholars
Henry Farrell and Abraham Newman (and discussed extensively by commentators
like Paul Krugman), the theory of weaponized interdependence explains how
globalization does not just create shared prosperity—it creates asymmetrical
choke points. Instead of relying purely on military might, states can use their
central position in global networks to spy on, disrupt, or coerce adversaries
and allies alike.
Who Holds the Power? Power in this system belongs to countries that sit at
the core of critical network topologies:
- The Hub-and-Spoke Controllers: Countries that control essential central infrastructure—such
as the United States, which commands global financial messaging (SWIFT), payment systems, and foundational technology supply
chains.
- Chokepoint Dominators: Nations that control vital physical or material nodes.
For example, China holds immense leverage through
its dominance over rare-earth mineral processing and specific manufactured
goods.
Key Mechanisms of Control
- The Panopticon Effect (Surveillance): Central nodes allow a dominant power to monitor
transactions and flows of information passing through the network.
- The Chokepoint Effect (Coercion): Dominant actors can cut off access to vital network
hubs (like financial clearinghouses or advanced microchips), paralyzing parts
of a target nation's economy.
The Backlash and Risks
When dominant nations weaponize these networks for
short-term political or economic gains, it triggers a system-wide reaction:
- Workarounds: Rivals are heavily incentivized
to build alternative shadow financial systems, decouple their supply chains, or secure independent resources (such as
China's rare-earth countermeasures).
- Erosion of Trust: Over-leveraging these central positions breaks down
the rules-based international order, turning global trade into an arena of
permanent economic conflict and fragmentation.
Book
The Uses and Abuses of Weaponized Interdependence
Edited by Daniel W. Drezner, Henry Farrell, and
Abraham L. Newman
Release Date: March 2, 2021
https://www.brookings.edu/books/the-uses-and-abuses-of-weaponized-interdependence/
Excerpt: How globalized information networks can be
used for strategic advantage
In exploring the conditions
under which China, Russia, and the United States might be expected to weaponize
control of information and manipulate the global economy, the
contributors to this volume challenge scholars and practitioners to think
differently about foreign economic policy, national security, and statecraft
for the twenty-first century.
The book addresses such questions as: What areas of the global
economy are most vulnerable to unilateral control of information and financial
networks? How sustainable is the use of weaponized interdependence? What
are the possible responses from targeted actors? And how sustainable is the
open global economy if weaponized interdependence becomes a default tool for
managing international relations?
經濟戰爭時代: 全球經濟如何成為美國的戰爭武器
Chokepoints: How the Global Economy Became a Weapon of
War
作者：愛德華．費希曼
譯者：陶安禮
出版社：感電出版
出版日期：2025/09/03
https://www.eslite.com/product/10012043902682976770002?srsltid=AfmBOop6A9wSrbktCgUhv-Fr--6XRMNZ7w9rrNGe0cJC5Ri1EWuavPWa
節錄：歡迎來到經濟戰爭時代 —— 此時此刻，美元、晶片與供應鏈，是比航空母艦更致命的武器。過去，摧毀一個國家的經濟需要封鎖港口、圍困城市；如今，美國政府只需在網路上發布一則聲明，就足以癱瘓對手的金融命脈。
這場戰爭的戰場，是全球經濟體系中那些看似尋常卻至關重要的「鎖喉點」（Chokepoints），本書將美國對抗俄羅斯、中國與伊朗等國的「經濟鎖喉戰」搬上檯面，揭示看似平和的全球化，如何在 21 世紀成為大國博弈的戰場。
本書作者愛德華・費希曼作為前美國國務院官員，帶領讀者深入權力中樞，揭露自冷戰後國際政經局勢的精彩內幕。當美國開始質疑全球化的結果，轉而開啟一場前所未見的經濟戰爭。隨著普丁、習近平與哈米尼等獨裁者在國際舞台上崛起，美國內部一群戰略創新者──外交官、律師與金融奇才，悄悄打造出一套制衡對手的經濟武器體系，將美國在金融與科技上的領先地位，化為經濟制裁利器。
➨本書共分六部，揭示美國如何將全球經濟，化為自己的戰爭武器：
AMLintelligence.com 的貼文
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7500104260458782720?updateEntityUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afs_updateV2%3A%28urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7500104260458782720%2CFEED_DETAIL%2CEMPTY%2CDEFAULT%2Cfalse%29
US TARGETS SECOND MEA BANK: The United
States is planning to target a second bank as part of its economic warfare
against Iran, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said today.
Washington has threatened sanctions on countries and
financial institutions that do business with Iran, seeking to isolate Tehran by
cutting off its financial lifelines.
"This is going to be financial violence if we
have to," Bessent said in an interview. "We are showing people that
we know who you are, you know who you are, and this has got to stop."
Bessent did not name the bank but further sanctions
are set to be announced later this week.
On Friday last Treasury unveiled sanctions
against branches in the United Arab Emirates of Banque Misr, Egypt's
second-largest bank. FinCEN said the UAE arm of the bank was a financial
institution operating outside the United States of primary money-laundering
concern.
AMLintelligence.com 的貼文
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7499124770987298818?updateEntityUrn=urn%3Ali%3Afs_updateV2%3A%28urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A7499124770987298818%2CFEED_DETAIL%2CEMPTY%2CDEFAULT%2Cfalse%29
UPDATE: The U.S. Department of
the Treasury will revoke access for Egypt's second biggest bank, Banque Misr's
branches in the UAE as part of this week's threatened economic assault on Iran.
The move will isolate the UAE branches of BanqueMisr
from US financial institutions and transacting in dollars.
“Treasury promised to sever every economic
lifeline Tehran has left and finally end the threat of the Iranian regime,”
Treasury secretary Scott Bessent commented Friday.
The move confirms what most AMLi readers saw coming.
The results of a survey undertaken this week by AMLintelligence.com publisher
Stephen Rae showed banking leaders predicted the financial institution to be
hit by threatened US sanctions would be based in the Middle East.
Of those who undertook the survey, 48pc said the
Middle East, 29pc predicted the EU, followed by Canada at 17pc and UK at 6pc.
US targets China’s global trade surplus at G20 meeting
ahead of Xi-Trump summit
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent raises concerns
over China’s ‘excessive imbalances’ just weeks before crucial bilateral meeting
South China Morning Post
Nayan Sethin (Washington)
1 Sep 2026
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3365895/us-targets-chinas-global-trade-surplus-g20-meeting-ahead-xi-trump-summit
Intro: US Treasury
Secretary Scott Bessent on Monday targeted China’s global trade surplus,
raising concerns over “excessive imbalances,” weeks before Chinese
President Xi Jinping is expected to arrive in Washington for a bilateral summit
with US President Donald Trump.
“We are confronting persistent global imbalances that
undermine prosperity,” Bessent said in his opening address at the G20 Finance
Ministers’ meeting in Asheville, North Carolina. The United States holds the
G20 presidency in 2026, leading a forum of the world’s major advanced and
emerging economies.
Without naming China, Bessent said that the
grouping’s finance ministers and central bank governors “have broadly concurred
that it is in the interests of both surplus and deficit countries to address
excessive imbalances”.
“We have seen how distorted policies that
privileged countries’ own exports have harmed many of the economies represented
here today,” he said, adding that a “durable global economy
cannot rest on beggar-thy-neighbour acts that stifle fair market-based
competition.”
Count the Costs of Cutting Technological Ties with
China
January 22, 2025
Keywords: Weaponized Interdependence
https://henryfarrell.net/count-the-costs-of-cutting-technological-ties-with-china/
Intro: The result of all this is that policy discourse
about the United States, China, and technology has careened from one pathology
to another: The cheery globalism of a decade ago has
given way to today’s diffuse paranoia. Now the national security conversation
is almost exclusively focused on the impossible task of severing the ties of
technological interdependence, with the only question being how much further to
go.
In Jessica Chen Weiss, ed. Getting China Right at
Home, Johns Hopkins SAIS Institute for America, China and the Future of Global
Affairs.
相關的文章：
Paul Krugman (Part 1)
2026 年 4 月 7 日
https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2026/04/paul-krugman-part-1.html
節錄：Paul Krugman 認為中國的私人消費不足以支持經濟成長，中國政府也無法令老百姓減少儲蓄和增加消費，所以要利用西方國家的消費力舒緩國內的失業壓力，否則很多企業要破產。簡單地說，貿易順差有必要，是用來維穩的。
穩定幣
(Stablecoin) Part 5
2026 年 4 月 22 日
https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2026/04/stablecoin-part-5.html
節錄：美國正在向外資銀行發出警告：切勿協助伊朗處理石油貿易及其他交易，否則可能會被實施次級制裁 (Secondary Sanction)，那是專門用來對付外國的個人或企業或金融機構的懲罰性措施，令外資銀行被排除於美國主導的金融系統之外，後果嚴重。英文的說法：Access to US dollar financial system and dollar
clearing revoked.
囚錢 (Part 2)
2026 年 6 月 13 日
https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2026/06/part-2.html
節錄：從外資的角度看，事情的本質，是中國把香港的金融系統武器化，同時扼殺監管套利 (Regulatory Arbitrage) 活動的生存空間（提示：拆紅籌）。外資銀行在香港營運，要同時聽中國和美國的指揮（或壓迫），處境艱難。兩個大國（中國和美國）都把金融體系或合規工具武器化，只不過所用的手段不同。中國是否模仿美國，自己想。不服從美國的指令，會被排除於美國的金融體系（提示：SWIFT）之外，做不到生意。服從美國的指令？會招致中國的報復。怎麼辦？撤出香港？
Debanking (Part 1)
2026 年 8 月 17 日
https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2026/08/debanking-part-1.html
節錄：銀行在什麼情況之下關閉客戶的賬户，背後牽涉許多複雜的考量。在戰雲密佈的日子，金融體系可以是武器，誰人有權力決定誰人得到銀行服務（即是：參與實體經濟活動的權利），並非商業決定那麼簡單。銀行關閉客戶賬户（Debanking）通常會以商業理由做包裝（例如：戶口結餘低於最低要求），或拒絕解釋，或講門面說話掩飾（例如：銀行只是按照客戶章程辦事，我們有權關閉賬户無需解釋）。背後就算牽涉政治考慮，銀行也不會公開講，原因是避免被捲入政治漩渦。
Debanking (Part 2)
2026 年 8 月 21 日
https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2026/08/debanking-part-2.html
節錄：美國跟「邪惡軸心」 (Axis of
evil) （即是：俄羅斯、中國、北韓、伊朗）角力的過程中，經常使用公布制裁名單這一招，迫使銀行業關閉名單上的敵國官員（及其家屬）的賬戶，直接導致合規成本增加，也為銀行營運增加難度。自己曾經被銀行關閉賬戶，就迫銀行關閉敵人的賬戶（把金融業或合規工具武器化）。是己所不欲，施之於敵人。要敵人承受自己所承受過的痛苦，而且由得罪過自己的行業出手，一舉兩得，手段精準和狠辣，是他的一貫作風。
孫宇晨 + 趙長鵬 = 禍不單行
2026 年 9 月 2 日
https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2026/09/blog-post.html
節錄：二人在中國以外的地區經營加密貨幣交易平台，遇到重重障礙，被外國的監管機構找麻煩，原因是牽涉洗黑錢或金融罪案，孫宇晨的 HTX 被指協助俄羅斯（透過加密貨幣）規避制裁。
遲早要還
2020 年 6 月 7 日
https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2020/06/blog-post.html
節錄：大國相爭，買辦死先，是香港的命運。金融中心地位受損，是最低消費 (Minimum charge) 或附帶傷害 (Collateral damage)。中美兩國處於半戰爭狀態，局部開火，平民百姓被誤傷或誤殺，私人財產被破壞或充公，也很常見，無法避免。至於美軍空投炸彈的命中率，請參考二戰時期的紅磡觀音廟幾乎被誤炸事件，阿彌陀佛！所以香港人又開始移民和撤資了。
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