商業英語有 Snake oil salesman（蛇油推銷員）一詞，意思是：騙徒向你推銷一些聲稱效力宏大或能醫百病的東西，真正目的是騙財（可以發展成傳銷或龐氏騙局 Ponzi Scheme）。也可以是邪教教主的那種玩法：教主聲稱能夠預見未來世界的發展方向，有能力引領群眾走上光明大道，擺脫各種吃人的舊制度。只要大家依照教主的說話做，就可以脫離苦海，登上彼岸，阿彌陀佛。如果你頭腦清醒，會發現所謂的「教主」言行不一，立場飄忽，利用傳媒，很大機會是職業騙子。
部份致力於推廣區塊鏈 (Blockchain) 或虛擬貨幣 (Virtual Currency) 的所謂「專家」很似這種人。近期的好例子，莫過於 Tesla 電動車的行政總裁（CEO）馬斯克 (Elon Musk)，萬一閣下不知道他對比特幣 (Bitcoin) 的看法以及 Tesla 電動車進軍中國市場所遇到的困難，請參考華文傳媒的相關報導。馬斯克是因為主業（電動車）出事於是拓展副業（比特幣），還是試圖用迂迴曲折的手段討好玩比特幣的中國顧客（證據：聲稱接受比特幣付款買車＋涉嫌出口術推高比特幣價格），結果得罪了出手打擊虛擬貨幣的中國政府，於是要急轉彎變成飄移，自己想。這種人在 100 周年黨慶的好日子唱好新中國，歌誦偉光正的成就，廣東話叫「大吉利是」，我啋！正所謂：「物以類聚，人以群分。」中國人民的「好朋友」是這種貨色？救命！另一個較少人注意的例子，是防毒軟件 McAfee 的創辦人邁克菲，今年六月底在西班牙獄中自殺身亡。他出售防毒軟件生意之後，似乎是迷失了方向，不斷轉型但是不成功，也一度自封虛擬貨幣「專家」，請參考＜延伸閱讀＞部份所提供的資料。
背後的原因不難理解：科技發展通常領先於監管制度，當科技開拓出一片新的空間，又或者是各國的法律（暫時）管不到的灰色地帶，就會吸引一大群烏合之眾、失業中年、異族浪人或鬼魅魍魎湧入去，趁亂謀取私利、搶佔市場、建立名氣（稍後套現）、清洗黑錢、累積跟官府談判的籌碼，諸如此類。區塊鏈或虛擬貨幣亦可作如是觀，趁入行門鑑 (Entry barriers) 還沒有升高，遊戲規則還未定形，監管機構還沒有找到適當的應對方法，盡快把事情扭曲成最符合自己利益的樣子，否則來不及。對，渾水摸魚的機會稍縱即逝。這類人是機會主義者，英語傳媒叫 Trend chasing（追逐新概念），不談戀愛，撈一把就走，或轉戰另一個江湖，也許上岸去，亦可以是逃亡（被官府追殺）。香港的失業中年，通常轉行做神棍或食家，背後的理念也是差不多（即：不受監管，無須負責，時間自由）。
從這個角度出發，各國中央銀行的當前急務包括：1. 跟科技發展競賽，盡快建立一套可行的監管制度，過程中可能需要修改舊的監管制度及改變背後的思維方式（因為數碼貨幣的運作方式跟傳統法幣很不同）。2. 繼續在現實和虛擬世界中跟壞人鬥智鬥力，保護不熟悉新科技的小市民（以免老百姓被騙去畢生的積蓄），才能證明自己（作為官府供養的御貓）的生存價值。3. 御貓抓捕壞人（老鼠）之餘，也要避免扼殺了金融創新的空間，同時還要發展央行數碼貨幣 (Central Bank Digital Currency, CBDC)，以免自己的國家落後於競爭對手，日後被別人所設計的遊戲規則所困，然後找不到出路或落後於仇家。總括而言：既要做球證，又要自己落場，又是球證又是球員，令人想起周星馳電影＜少林足球＞(2001) 中，謝霆鋒老爸謝賢飾演的魔鬼隊班主的經典對白：「全部都係我嘅人，點同我打呀？」（粵：全部都是我的人，你怎麼夠我鬥？），哈哈。御貓既要捉老鼠，又要跟老鼠爭奪客戶（鼓勵老百姓採用官府設計的央行數碼貨幣而非民間搞出來的虛擬或毛孩或藝人貨幣），聽起來非常矛盾，但事實就是這樣。論靈活性和創新能力，官府的飯桶比不上民間的高手，但身為御貓沒有選擇，也不可以逃避責任，否則沒有資格用公帑出貓糧（支薪），對不對？新舊交替的年代，御貓也很難當。
［免責聲明：這個系列並非推廣比特幣（Bitcoin）及其他「加密貨幣」（Cryptocurrency），相關的投資風險請參考 (Part 1) 的＜延伸閱讀＞部份由投資者及理財教育委員會（IFEC）和證監會（SFC）所提供的中文資料，如有損失與 Auntie 無關。］
插圖來源：
說明：如果你眼力好，把插圖放大之後，可以見到瓶內的（道具）數碼貨幣印有各國央行的標誌，有歐盟，也有中國人民銀行 (PBOC) 及 MAS (Monetary Authority of Singapore) 。內文討論各國央行發展數碼貨幣是跟風還是有必要。
延伸閱讀／參考資料：
Cambridge Dictionary - Snake oil salesman
https://dictionary.cambridge.org/zhs/词典/英语/snake-oil-salesman
Definition - Someone who deceives people in order to get money from them: He was dubbed a "modern day snake oil salesman" after he ripped off thousands of internet customers.
Wikipedia – Snake oil
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snake_oil
Extract: Snake oil is a term used to describe deceptive marketing, health care fraud, or a scam. Similarly, "snake oil salesman" is a common expression used to describe someone who sells, promotes, or is a general proponent of some valueless or fraudulent cure, remedy, or solution. The terms come from the "snake oil" that used to be sold as a cure-all elixir for many kinds of physiological problems.
Many 19th-century United States and 18th-century European entrepreneurs advertised and sold mineral oil (often mixed with various active and inactive household herbs, spices, drugs, and compounds, but containing no snake-derived substances whatsoever) as "snake oil liniment", making claims about its efficacy as a panacea. Patent medicines that claimed to be a panacea were extremely common from the 18th century until the 20th, particularly among vendors masking addictive drugs such as cocaine, amphetamine, alcohol and opium-based concoctions or elixirs, to be sold at medicine shows as medication or products promoting health.
History. Oil from Chinese water snakes has for centuries been used in Chinese traditional medicine to treat joint pain such as arthritis and bursitis. It has been suggested that the use of snake oil in the United States may have originated with Chinese railway labourers in the mid-19th century, who worked long days of physical toil. Chinese snake oil may have had real benefits due to its high concentration of the omega−3 fatty acid eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA)—more than that of salmon; the rattlesnake oil later sold by charlatans does not contain a useful amount of omega−3. In a modern study, Erabu sea-snake oil was found to significantly improve the ability of mice to learn mazes, and their swimming endurance, over mice fed lard.
In popular culture, a particular kind of confidence trick is associated with the snake oil salesman, in which the travelling salesman purports to be a doctor (with dubious credentials), selling fake medicines with boisterous marketing hype, often supported by pseudo-scientific evidence. To increase sales, an accomplice in the crowd (a shill) will often attest to the value of the product in an effort to provoke buying enthusiasm. The "doctor" will leave town before his customers realize they have been cheated. This scam is often associated with the Old West, and appears in some Western films, but the judgment condemning snake oil as medicine took place in Rhode Island, and involved snake oil manufactured in Massachusetts.
Why Most Futurists, Crypto and Blockchain Gurus are Snake Oil Salesmen
Michael Haupt
March 8th 2018
https://hackernoon.com/blockchain-snake-oil-salesmen-12d4f907cf48
Extract: Every bubble is accompanied by self-proclaimed gurus who claim they know what’s going on. When serious questions are asked by people desperately seeking meaningful answers to tough questions about the societal impact blockchain, AI, robotics and Emerging Strategic Technologies (EST) will have, they ramble on and on and provide at best nothing but hot air, at worst misleading and feckless crowdspeak. This is downright irresponsible and needs to stop.
When you see someone appearing publicly waxing eloquent about a rosy Bitcoin or decentralised future, you can safely assume they don’t know what they’re talking about. There are exceptions, but they are rare. [Edit: A reader asked for convincing evidence that I’m not a snake oil salesman — a valid question. The truth is, we are witnessing a moment in humanity’s evolution unlike anything that precedes it in human experience. Anyone who claims to know exactly what’s happening is a fool.]
Cryptocurrency policies must combat snake oil without stifling innovation
Ethan Lou
Contributed to The Globe and Mail
Published November 25, 2019
Extract: Cryptocurrency has become its own multibillion-dollar industry and enriched many, and it’s barely 10 years old. Everyone in it, even the most knowledgeable, had come from somewhere else. It is a land of new beginnings, where anyone can rise high. But that frontier also attracts the uninitiated, seeking fast riches – and the snake-oil salesmen and slipshod wildcatters seeking the same.
The scene is particularly rife in the coastal British Columbia, home to the world’s first bitcoin ABM, the first registered cryptocurrency investment firm in the country and numerous listed blockchain companies. The sector has an oversized presence there, with great potential. But that also amplifies the bad actors. The B.C. commission’s first statement warned about two products that used the cryptocurrency name, but “resemble a pyramid scheme.” Two other statements came on the same day this month, about the trading platforms ezBtc and Einstein Exchange, accused of owing millions to users. Those bring to mind the collapsed QuadrigaCX, also from Vancouver, whose users claim more than $200-million.
Canada has all the potential to be the leading hub for cryptocurrency and blockchain, its name invoked in the same way Switzerland is for watches. The powers that have the ability to make it so, to craft permissive policies. But when all they see is scandal and turmoil, they question whether it is worth the trouble. It may be chicken-and-egg. While exchanges serving Canadians may be tied to the land, cryptocurrency itself is borderless. Do firms flee because there are no permissive policies? Or are there no policies because firms have fled?
Blockchain: Quantum Leap Forward or Digital Snake Oil?
https://www.intelligencesquared.com/events/blockchain-quantum-leap-forward-or-digital-snake-oil/
Extract: Blockchain, the technology on which Bitcoin is based, has gone mainstream. Until recently a subject confined to tech blogs and Reddit pages, it is earning huge amounts of column inches and airtime. Stories abound of Bitcoin millionaires and multimillion-dollar ICOs (Initial Coin Offerings). New cryptocurrencies are launched every week. People who don’t entirely understand what they’re buying are rushing to purchase Bitcoin for fear of missing out. And then there are the Bitcoin Cassandras, who say they’ve seen this sort of frenzy many times before and warn of impending bust even as new investors stampede towards this digital gold rush.
Does blockchain really have the potential to do away with the system of centralised governments and corporations its biggest fans so distrust, or will it just be co-opted by them? And with the cryptocurrency network now consuming more power than some countries, is blockchain headed for a showdown with environmentalists?
The Darker Side of Blockchain
Nouriel Roubini
Professor of Economics and
International Business, Stern School of Business,
New
York University
https://www.collerinstituteofventure.org/articles/the-darker-side-of-blockchain
Extract: There is a good reason why every civilized country in the world tightly regulates its financial system. The 2008 global financial crisis, after all, was largely the result of rolling back financial regulation. Crooks, criminals, and grifters are a fact of life, and no financial system can serve its proper purpose unless investors are protected from them.
But the current regulatory regime does not capture all financial activity. Cryptocurrencies are routinely launched and traded outside the domain of official financial oversight, where avoidance of compliance costs is advertised as a source of efficiency. The result is that crypto land has become an unregulated casino, where unchecked criminality runs riot.
Beware of snake-oil salesmen
Michael Fahy
Jul 10, 2018
https://www.royalgazette.com/other/article/20180710/beware-of-snake-oil-salesmen/
Extract: Well when the respected Harvard Business Review says “it will take decades for blockchain to seep into our economic and social infrastructure. The process of adoption will be gradual and steady, not sudden, as waves of technological and institutional change gain momentum”, then we should accept that the effect will not be immediate. Indeed, surely as blockchain takes off the necessity for traditional intermediaries diminishes?
Beware the hype over central bank digital currencies
BY PETER LEE
June 23, 2021
Extract: We are at the peak of the hype cycle for central bank digital currencies (CBDC), now being touted as one of the most fundamental innovations in the history of central banking. It is time for central banks and governments to be honest with unenthused populations. CBDC can’t deliver all the many promised improvements. As we come to design choices, there will be trade-offs. We might get improved payments but less credit. We could see greater financial inclusion but will lose privacy. Are the few benefits really worth the risk of disrupting the financial system?
The BIS found at the start of this year that 60% of 60 central banks surveyed around the world were conducting experiments and proofs of work in CBDC, with 14% having already moved ahead to pilot projects. CBDC, which analysts at Citi call digital money 2.0, could be very different from the trillions of dollars now moving electronically every day between wholesale and retail bank accounts.
Binance: Watchdog clamps down on cryptocurrency exchange
By Mary-Ann Russon
Business reporter, BBC News
28 June 2021
https://www-bbc-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-57632831.amp
Extract: Binance, the world's biggest cryptocurrency exchange, has been issued a warning by the UK's financial regulator. The Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) has ruled that the firm cannot conduct any "regulated activity" in the UK. It also advised people to be wary of adverts promising high returns on cryptoasset investments. Binance said the FCA notice would have no "direct impact" on the services it provides from its website Binance.com. Binance's existing crypto exchange is not UK-based so despite the FCA ruling, there will be no impact on UK residents who use the website to purchase and sell cryptocurrencies.
The FCA does not regulate cryptocurrencies, but requires exchanges to register with them. Binance has not registered with the FCA and therefore is not allowed to operate an exchange in the UK. Binance.com is an online centralised exchange that offers users a range of financial products and services, including purchasing and trading a wide range of digital currencies, as well as digital wallets, futures, securities, savings accounts and even lending. Binance Group is currently based in the Cayman Islands, while Binance Markets Limited is an affiliate firm based in London. The firm has multiple entities dotted around the world and Binance Group was previously based in Malta.
金管局：將要求香港銀行提交應用金融科技 3 年計劃
RTHK (2021-06-08)
https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/k2/1594910-20210608.htm?archive_date=2021-06-08
節錄：金管局公布，將要求香港銀行於今年第 4 季提交應用金融科技的 3 年計劃，以評估香港銀行現時及未來數年內採用金融科技的情況，預計明年上半年發表結果。金管局指，會分析評估結果並與海外市場進行比較，找出可能未被足夠重視的金融科技業務領域，以及可能未被廣泛採納的具體科技類別，包括人工智能及區塊鏈等，並根據應用評估結果，考慮推出措施，以推動香港銀行業金融科技發展。另外，金管局指，目前坊間的加密資產均缺乏貨幣特質，包括儲值、支付以及計價功能，但央行發行的數字貨幣是鈔票的代替品。不過，金管局指，會密切留意加密資產發展，對銀行引入相關服務持開放態度，但要管理好反洗錢風險。
Fraudsters are exploiting blockchains and digital currencies
May/June 2020
By Sri Ramamoorti, Ph.D., CFE, CPA, CIA; Sarah J. Webber, J.D., CPA; Mira Khalil
https://www.fraud-magazine.com/article.aspx?id=4295010599
Extract: Bulgarians Konstantin Ignatov and his sister, Ruja Ignatova, created OneCoin in 2014 as a supposed cryptocurrency competitor to Bitcoin. They called it “Bitcoin Killer,” but it was allegedly a get-rich-quick scheme that defrauded more than three million investors worldwide of more than $4 billion. (See US fed prosecutor tells court OneCoin is a $4 billion Ponzi scheme, behind MLM, Jan. 23, 2019.)
Ruja Ignatova, the so-called “OneCoin Queen,” disappeared in 2017 from Sofia, Bulgaria. Police in Mumbai, India, charged her in July 2017 of running a Ponzi scheme. (See Indian Police Prepare Charges Against OneCoin Founder Ruja Ignatova, coindesk, July 12, 2017.) The U.S. Department of Justice charged her later with wire fraud, bank fraud and money-laundering offenses. (See Manhattan U.S. Attorney Announces Charges Against Leaders of ‘OneCoin’ … March 8, 2019.)
Her brother, Konstantin Ignatov, the leader of the international pyramid scheme, was arrested March 6, 2019, on a wire fraud conspiracy charge after his indictment by the Department of Justice U.S. Attorney’s Office of the Southern District of New York. He entered into a plea agreement on Sept. 27, 2019, and he pleaded guilty to the charges in November 2019. Ignatov, who could face up to 90 years in prison, has agreed to testify against his sister, Ruja, and others in the scheme. (See Details of Konstantin Ignatov’s OneCoin guilty plea, behind MLM, Nov. 15, 2019.)
OneCoin is a multilevel marketing network; it promised commissions to members for inviting potential investors to purchase cryptocurrency packages. “As alleged, these defendants created a multibillion-dollar ‘cryptocurrency’ company based completely on lies and deceit,” said Manhattan U.S. Attorney Geoffrey S. Berman. “They promised big returns and minimal risk, but, as alleged, this business was a pyramid scheme based on smoke and mirrors more than zeroes and ones.” Their activities are also under scrutiny in China and India.
Elon Musk praises China's 'economic prosperity' on 100th anniversary of Chinese Communist Party
By Michelle Toh, CNN Business
July 01, 2021
Extract: Hong Kong (CNN Business) Elon Musk is applauding China on a momentous day for the country's ruling political party. The Tesla (TSLA) and SpaceX CEO lavished praise on the country as it marked a special occasion Thursday: the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese Communist Party.
In a Twitter post, Musk wrote that "the economic prosperity that China has achieved is truly amazing, especially in infrastructure! I encourage people to visit and see for themselves." Musk was responding to a post from Chinese state-run news agency Xinhua, which referred to Chinese President Xi Jinping's campaign to end "absolute poverty in China." Musk also posted the same message on Weibo, China's Twitter-like platform, where he has nearly 1.8 million followers. The Weibo post has attracted some 500 comments, where his remarks raised eyebrows among some users. "Elon Musk, an old CCP member," wrote one user, who added a laughing emoji. Reaction was also mixed on Twitter. Some users seconded Musk's remarks, while others pointed to China's record on human rights.
The billionaire businessman recently embarked on a charm offensive in China, where his electric automaker Tesla has faced a series of issues this year. Just last weekend, nearly all of the vehicles Tesla had built and sold in China were recalled by regulators over concerns about the cruise control system. The company was also targeted in April by protesting Tesla owners at the country's largest auto show in Shanghai, where they complained about problems with their cars. Regulators have questioned the quality of Tesla's Shanghai-made Model 3s, too, and there have been reports of heightened scrutiny of the company from China's military.
Tesla 回收中國逾 28 萬輛電動車 佔中國總銷量超過 9 成
香港經濟日報（2021-06-28）
https://inews.hket.com/article/2992713/
節錄：Tesla 在中國市場宣布電動車回收計劃，包括 2019 年後在當地銷售的逾 28.8 萬輛純電動車，佔 Tesla 在中國市場總銷量的 9 成。據日經中文網報道，回收的 Tesla 電動車包括 2019 年 1 月至 11 月進口的「Model 3」，約 3.6 萬輛；2019 年 12 月至 2021 年 6 月的中國產「Model 3」，約 21.1 萬輛；以及今年 1 月至 6 月的中國產「Model Y」，約 3.9 萬輛。報道引述調查公司 MarkLines 的統計顯示，Tesla 在 2019 年 1 月至今年 5 月的在華銷量大約 30.4 萬輛。Tesla 表示將會為顧客免費提供遠程軟體更新，消除故障，用戶無需到店。據指，Tesla 電動車故障與自動駕駛的控制系統有關，在部分情況下，車輛會突然加速。 Tesla 日前在網誌上發文稱，「會嚴格按照中國要求，不斷完善和提升安全性」。事實上，中國政府部門、消費者自今年起開始批評 Tesla 電動車的品質問題，令 Tesla 急需應對。
特斯拉公關災難連環爆、中國銷量大減 27%！
比亞迪、蔚來急起直追，恐動搖電動車領導地位？
陳建鈞
數位時代（2021-05-14）
https://www.bnext.com.tw/article/62848/tesla-china-april-sales-decline
節錄：特斯拉的「中國夢」似乎遇上了一些阻礙。今年 4 月特斯拉在中國的銷量，較 3 月份大幅衰退 27%，也進而導致特斯拉股價下跌逾 7%。中國乘用車信息聯合會的數據指出，4 月特斯拉僅在中國銷出 25,845 輛電動車，而 3 月時的銷量則為 35,478 輛。儘管中國電動車市場整體銷量也下滑 12%，但特斯拉的衰退幅度仍舊遠超市場平均。中國是特斯拉僅次於美國的第二大市場，去年特斯拉中國營收達到 66.6 億美元，占年度營收的 21% 左右，較前一年幾乎成長一倍。然而從 2021 年開始，特斯拉與中國政府的摩擦卻與日俱增。
今年第一季，特斯拉仍舊在中國創造 30 億美元的營收，幾乎是去年營收的 3 倍，並達到整體營收的 30%。維德布什證券分析師丹．艾夫斯（Dan Ives）表示，特斯拉 4 月的銷量與蔚來、小鵬及理想等電動車新創的銷量成長相比較為遜色，聲稱特斯拉正面臨著公關災難，一部分原因便是安全疑慮及上海車展中的抗議事件。 4 月舉辦的上海車展中，一名女車主身穿寫有煞車失靈的衣服到特斯拉攤位鬧場，指控特斯拉軟體存在漏洞，導致煞車系統異常。特斯拉則嚴詞否認有煞車失靈疑慮，並公佈車禍前的數據紀錄。然而中國官媒卻在後續加入聲討特斯拉的行列，發表多篇評論指責特斯拉漠視消費者權益，甚至有較為激烈者建議應該將特斯拉趕出中國。特斯拉隨後也放低姿態認錯，並計畫在年內為中國車主推出一個公開數據平台，讓車主可以查詢自己的行車數據。
稍早更有報導指出，礙於中美關係漸趨緊張，特斯拉已暫停在上海購入土地、擴建廠房的計畫，放棄讓上海成為其全球電動車出口樞紐的計畫。根據《路透社》報導，特斯拉放棄大舉擴充上海廠產能的計畫，沒有參與上海廠一旁土地的競標。不過特斯拉官方不願對此多作回應，僅聲稱一切按照計畫進行。外界原先估計， 2022 年時中國可能將占特斯拉整體銷售的 40% 以上，且中國製 Model 3 毛利率較高，但現在與中國政府漸趨緊張的關係，使得這一切出現了未知數。《路透社》更評論，特斯拉可能將失去在中國電動車市場的領導地位。雖然特斯拉目前全球需求熱烈，加上車用晶片短缺問題也已經燒到電動車龍頭，中國市場下滑可能對整體影響不大，但長期而言，中國作為全球最大電動車市場，特斯拉或許仍得與中國政府打好關係。
馬斯克，中國礦工……
一文看懂近期比特幣大幅波動及背後原因
BBC 中文網 (2021 年 5 月 25 日)
https://www.bbc.com/zhongwen/trad/business-57240292
節錄：近期為什麼暴跌？比特幣暴漲或暴跌往往受到消息面影響。這一輪暴跌始於比特幣的最大擁躉者這一——埃隆．馬斯克。三月份，馬斯克宣佈旗下電動車公司特斯拉將支持比特幣支付，為比特幣在四月走上歷史高位推波助瀾。但進入五月，馬斯克「反悔」，稱已暫停使用比特幣購買特斯拉的計劃，比特幣應聲下跌 10%。而他的理由是環保 ——「我們擔憂，用比特幣挖礦及交易，導致化石燃料的使用急速增長。」
而中國和美國政府也下場對付加密貨幣。美國司法部和國稅局以涉嫌洗錢為由，開啟對全球最大加密貨幣交易所幣安 (Binance) 的調查。上周四，美國財政部表示，政府的一份提案將要求向美國國稅局 (IRS) 報告超過 1 萬美元的加密貨幣轉賬。中國政府在五月發佈一系列政策，也重創加密貨幣，包括金融和支付機構不得接受加密貨幣作為支付結算工具；不得提供與加密貨幣相關的服務和產品；打擊比特幣挖礦和交易行為等。中國的地方政府也在同步打擊虛擬幣「挖礦」，而中國佔全球比特幣開採量的 75％ 以上。多個負面消息疊加，比特幣一度暴跌超過 30%。這樣巨幅波動，對比特幣而言並不稀奇，但這是過去六年歐元兌美元波幅中位數的六倍。
圍繞比特幣的交易雖然很活躍，但以比特幣作為貨幣來定價的商品少之又少。這有違其作為一種「貨幣」的初衷，多蘭認為，這種情況下基本上就是一小群人囤積一個有限數量的代幣，而「這個代幣只要面臨監管機構調整政策、支持者發佈推文、或者是大戶平倉，就會一再出現劇烈且缺乏流動性的震蕩」。比特幣可能因此進入惡性循環。德意志銀行分析師拉布雷（Marion Laboure）將其比喻為「仙子效應」(Tinkerbell effect)——彼得．潘聲稱，唯有孩子們相信仙子存在，仙子才會存在。「換句話說，比特幣的價值完全基於一廂情願的想法。」
John McAfee: antivirus entrepreneur found dead in Spanish prison
McAfee’s extradition to the US on tax charges had been approved hours earlier
Sam Jones in Madrid, Kari Paul in San Francisco and agencies @swajones
23 Jun 2021Extract: The antivirus software entrepreneur John McAfee has been found dead in his cell in Spain from an apparent suicide, hours after the country’s highest court approved his extradition to the United States, where he was wanted on tax-related criminal charges that carry a prison sentence of up to 30 years. In a statement, the Catalan justice department said that prison officers and medics had tried to save the life of a 75-year-old man but had been unsuccessful.
Tax offenses. McAfee, the creator of the McAfee virus software, was arrested last October at Barcelona’s international airport as he was about to board a flight to Istanbul. The arrest of the entrepreneur came a day after authorities had made public a US indictment stemming from alleged tax offenses. Tennessee prosecutors had charged McAfee with evading taxes after failing to report income made from promoting cryptocurrencies while he did consultancy work, as well as income from speaking engagements and selling the rights to his life story for a documentary.
Erratic behavior. Since making a fortune in the 1980s with the software that still bears his name, McAfee had engaged in increasingly erratic behavior, most recently as a self-styled cryptocurrency guru claiming to make $2,000 a day. In July 2019, he was released from detention in the Dominican Republic after he and five others were suspected of traveling on a yacht carrying high-calibre weapons, ammunition and military-style gear, officials in the Caribbean country said at the time. In March, he was charged in a Manhattan federal court over a pump and dump scheme involving cryptocurrencies he was promoting to his large social media following.
防毒軟件 McAfee 創辦人在西班牙獄中自殺身亡
RTHK 2021-06-24
https://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/k2/1597497-20210624.htm
節錄：防毒軟件 McAfee 創辦人邁克菲，在西班牙獄中自殺身亡。邁克菲是在西班牙法院同意批准引渡他到美國，就涉嫌逃稅受審後數小時，被發現在獄中自盡。加泰羅尼亞司法部門說，醫護人員曾經嘗試急救，但不成功。邁克菲去年 10 月在西班牙準備坐飛機前往土耳其時被捕，他本月較早時曾經在引渡聆訊中辯稱，指控是出於政治性質，強調如果被引渡返美國，將要在監獄度過餘生。
相關的文章：
數碼貨幣 (Part 3)
2020 年 10 月 22 日
https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2020/10/part-3.html
節錄：由於加密貨幣 (Cryptocurrency) 的買賣活動無須經過美元結算體系，另一個常見用途是用來繞過美國的貿易制裁，那是伊朗和北韓的做法。好處是讓受到國際社會孤立的政權可以（透過進行對外貿易或犯罪活動）賺取收入，繼續生存以及發展武器自保，詳情請參考＜延伸閱讀＞部份所提供的英文材料。對，獨裁者也要想辦法賺錢，然後把剝削老百姓所得的錢轉移（洗黑錢），以便在海外建立小金庫，萬一他日被推翻，老婆、情婦和兒孫也有錢用。
數碼貨幣 (Part 2)
2020 年 10 月 7 日
https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2020/10/part-2.html
節錄：在中美關係惡化的背景下，中國央行與其被動地回應，被（國際社會）邊緣化，倒不如採取主動，爭取成為設定行業標準的先行者 (First Mover)，順便把法定貨幣（人民幣）數碼化（提示：化粧＋喬裝＋黃子華），一來保住中國央行的地位，二來保障國家主權及金融安全，三來讓中國可以繼續進行對外貿易（即：對抗美元霸權或繞過貿易制裁），一舉數得。
數碼貨幣 (Part 1)
2020 年 10 月 7 日
https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2020/10/part-1.html
節錄：中美關係惡化又同時牽動了中共內部的派系鬥爭，令局內人覺得危在旦夕，有急切需要尋找新的走資渠道，安排後路及安頓家人。同一時間，疫症蔓延令經濟活動或停頓或半停擺，很多人無法出門，被迫長時間留在家中，透過互聯網跟外面的世界保持聯繫。在這種情況下，不受監管的加密貨幣 (Cryptocurrency) 正好符合大陸貪官的走資需求。
移形換影
2020 年 12 月 12 日
https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2020/12/blog-post.html
節錄：大陸的金融監管機構高層也不好當，因為即使沒有中美關係惡化蔓延至金融領域這個負面因素，單是日常運作的層面，如何避免中國現有的金融系統被犯罪份子所利用，以及回應數碼貨幣和電子支付 (Digital Currency / Electronic Payment，簡稱 DC/EP) 所帶來的各種挑戰，以免金融科技形成新的系統性風險 (Systematic risk) 隱患（出處：中國銀保監會主席郭樹清），已經是一項非常艱鉅的任務。從監管機構的角度看，新舊夾擊，想起都頭痛。
抄襲＋灌水
2021 年 2 月 10 日
https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2021/02/blog-post.html
節錄：你見到中國的科網股例如阿里爸爸（港股編號：9988）也面對同樣的罪名，旗下的支付寶母公司螞蟻集團的上市計畫在最後一刻被煞停，之後有傳聞阿里爸爸已經與中國的監管機構就業務重組計劃達成協議，螞蟻集團會轉型為一家金融控股公司，面對與銀行業同一標準的資本要求，即是營利能力被削弱，影響估值和降低集資金額。如果上市籌集的資金不足，是否要把股份賣給國家（還是把股份上繳給黨中央？），說得出來的（反壟斷）又是否藉口，自己想。
Leapfrogging（蛙跳模式）
2017 年 11 月 10 日
https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.hk/2017/11/leapfrogging.html
節錄：如果你知道甚麼叫 Leapfrogging（中譯：蛙跳模式），應該不會覺得用支付寶吃飯、購物、叫車或嫖妓是「先進」，用現金付款是「落後」。新科技的滲透率高，並不代表某個國家「先進」。Leapfrogging（蛙跳模式）是西方商學院理論，意思是：發展中國家跳過較舊的科技，直接引入較新的科技，形成比西方發達國家更高的滲透率 (Penetration rate)。這種現象，常見於電訊或能源行業。
下有對策
2021 年 3 月 4 日
https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2021/03/blog-post.html
節錄：另一種把電子消費券套現的方法，是小市民跟商戶達成秘密協議（即：勾結），用電子消費券換取現金而非收取貨物，而商戶就偽造售貨的單據或紀錄，用來瞞騙官府。如果那盤生意不過是門面公司 (Front Company)，真正目的是洗黑錢，就有需要偽造售貨的單據或紀錄，用來掩飾黑錢（犯罪收入）的來源，對不對？
Disintermediation（非中介化）
2018 年 3 月 28 日
https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.hk/2018/03/disintermediation.html
節錄：中間人被飛，商學院語言叫 Disintermediation（非中介化）。首當其衝的，是舊經濟的中間人行業（例如：商業銀行、地產代理、人事顧問）。華人社會的傳媒行業，向來是 Power broker 的溫床，部份「資深傳媒人」其實是穿梭於不同陣營之間的中間人，所以你會見到這種「傳媒人」跟地產代理或人事顧問或建制派或人大政協埋堆，一起罵年輕人不肯捱，我後生果陣慘過你但是沒有自殺也沒有精神病。夕陽工業，同病相憐，圍爐取暖，就是那麼一回事。
雙軌制（一）
2011 年 10 月 14 日
http://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2011/10/blog-post_14.html
節錄：國有銀行為當權者服務，無法有效地扮演中介 (Intermediation) 的角色，存貸利率被人為地扭曲，長期偏低，無法反映真正的資金需求。民間中小企長期融資困難，只能光顧貸款利率高得嚇死人的地下錢莊。有些溫州民企老闆拿到錢之後，沒有用來經營實業，而是用更高的利率拆放出去，又或者參與形形色色的炒賣活動。同一時間，小存戶無法得到合理的回報，老百姓不甘被合法剝削，眼見物價上漲，購買力流失，為求自保，也參與非法的集資和放貸活動。
官商角力
2016 年 9 月 9 日
http://xiaoshousha.blogspot.hk/2016/09/blog-post.html
節錄：有些商品或服務，消費者有需求，但是供應不足或者質素欠佳，頭腦靈活的生意人，於是採用另類的手法去滿足需求。可以是公然違反法例，走法律罅又或者是靠燒錢搶佔市場佔有率（例如：Uber），希望造成聲勢又或者是既定事實，試圖衝擊官府的底線以及測試官員的容忍程度，看看能否開闢新的市場空間，最終迫使官府修改法例或遊戲規則，讓這些新推出的商品或服務由非法變成合法。
老問題
2021 年 5 月 28 日
https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2021/05/blog-post_28.html
節錄：互聯網的商業化和普及化從九十年代中開始，美國幾大科網巨企業（即：Amazon, Google, Facebook）隨後誕生，智能手機於 2007 年面世，年輕人從此埋頭玩社交媒體或透過網上渠道接收資訊，直接導致舊媒體（尤其是文字傳媒）的萎縮（或結業或裁員或賣盤）。發展至今，輪到金融業的商業模式改變（提示：數碼貨幣＋電子支付）。這一波的產業革命由訊息產業所帶動，是一個需要言論自由的行業。
入行障礙（二）
2012 年 12 月 14 日
http://xiaoshousha.blogspot.hk/2012/12/blog-post_14.html
節錄：香港的失業中年，還有甚麼出路？有！神棍和食家。這兩個行業的共通點，是毋須考試，不受監管，成效存疑，沒有法律責任，適合大話精。震倉哥成名之後，大家都知道當神棍的金錢回報沒有上限，按時薪計算，勝過需要不停考試和無償加班的專業人士。當然，對震倉哥來說，風水不過是前菜，主菜是其他服務。
神棍技倆
2007 年 8 月 3 日
http://xiaoshousha.blogspot.hk/2007/08/blog-post.html
節錄：做神棍要一手軟一手硬，又氹又嚇，這正是＜英耀賦＞的主旨。＜英耀賦＞是一篇教江湖術士如何捕捉客戶心理的古文，第一段開宗明義說：「入門先觀來意，出言要順人心，先千後隆（千者恐嚇、隆者籠絡），乃兵家之常法，輕敲響賣，是江湖之秘宗。有問不可遲答，無言切勿先聲。談男命，先千後隆，講女命，先隆後千。」換言之，對付男人要靠嚇，女人就靠氹。
神佛生意經
2009 年 9 月 25 日
http://xiaoshousha.blogspot.hk/2009/09/blog-post_25.html
節錄：在香港，基督教的傳教手法接近特許經營 (Franchising) 或者傳銷／直銷 (Direct Marketing)，都是把外國的商業模式 (Business Model)（尤其是美國福音派或者基要派的那一套）照搬到華人社會，工作指引 (Working Manual)、操作指南 (Operation Guideline) 和靈修材料也是照單全收，一字不漏譯成中文。
2012 年 8 月 11 日
http://xiaoshousha.blogspot.hk/2012/08/opm-part-5.html
節錄：特許經營通常不容許加盟商有太大的自主空間，亦即是無權替商品或者服務進行本地化 (Localization)，一定要跟足工作指引 (Working Manual) 與操作指南 (Operation Guideline) 辦事。從總公司的角度看，是借助別人（本地人）之手，測試現有的商業模式 (Business Model)，看看能否適應另一個市場、另一種文化背景。
人生滿希望
2018 年 5 月 25 日
http://xiaoshousha.blogspot.hk/2018/05/blog-post_25.html
節錄：如果你聽從那些被傳媒捧紅的名嘴專家的意見，然後事情出錯，你嫁錯老公或娶錯老婆或投資失利或選錯科或入錯行，那些名嘴專家或人生教練不會向你道歉或賠償。閣下不過是某人成名路上的踏腳石，名嘴專家把你罵個狗血淋頭，鬼扯談扮權威，點紅點綠浪費閣下的時間、精力與金錢，是為了建立名氣，然後盡快把名氣套現（例如：出書、講座、棟督笑），否則便是白捱或錯過時機。閣下的長遠利益，跟名嘴專家或人生教練無關。
Boiler Room
2020 年 9 月 12 日
https://xiaoshousha.blogspot.com/2020/09/boiler-room.html
節錄：「炒股群組」所用的行騙手法，源於一種叫 Boiler Room 的騙局。何謂 Boiler Room？騙徒透過電話、電郵或社交媒體（例如：WhatsApp）聯絡受害人，用高壓手段推銷股票，亦可以是未上市的投資項目，又或者是其他投資產品（例如：債券、商品、外匯）。如果受害人購入騙徒所推介的股票，令股價大幅飆升，然後幕後玩家趁機出貨獲利，便是操控股價即是造市。
03/07/2021
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